Minnesota Timberwolves
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Minnesota Timberwolves?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 88 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves were 7.7% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 88 | 63.6% | 67.4% | 71.8% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 91 | 58.2% | 67.3% | 65.8% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Minnesota Timberwolves won 5 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 6 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 94 | #10 | 1511 | 1604 | 1585 |
| 2024-25 | 97 | #5 | 1490 | 1660 | 1644 |
| 2023-24 | 98 | #5 | 1491 | 1677 | 1636 |
| 2022-23 | 87 | #17 | 1510 | 1535 | 1506 |
| 2021-22 | 88 | #10 | 1511 | 1606 | 1560 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #24 | 1510 | 1520 | 1421 |
| 2019-20 | 64 | #28 | 1511 | 1533 | 1350 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #21 | 1491 | 1522 | 1449 |
| 2017-18 | 87 | #13 | 1490 | 1588 | 1537 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #23 | 1491 | 1513 | 1432 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #23 | 1511 | 1523 | 1424 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #30 | 1491 | 1501 | 1277 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #18 | 1509 | 1540 | 1501 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #21 | 1510 | 1529 | 1427 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #26 | 1490 | 1533 | 1391 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #30 | 1489 | 1500 | 1285 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #30 | 1509 | 1509 | 1266 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #27 | 1509 | 1509 | 1354 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #24 | 1490 | 1490 | 1381 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #27 | 1510 | 1545 | 1383 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #26 | 1509 | 1557 | 1400 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #9 | 1510 | 1572 | 1548 |
| 2003-04 | 100 | #4 | 1510 | 1684 | 1661 |
| 2002-03 | 88 | #6 | 1510 | 1633 | 1584 |
| 2001-02 | 85 | #12 | 1510 | 1640 | 1519 |
| 2000-01 | 86 | #13 | 1511 | 1608 | 1548 |
| 1999-00 | 86 | #10 | 1491 | 1618 | 1574 |
| 1998-99 | 54 | #18 | 1512 | 1559 | 1471 |
| 1997-98 | 87 | #12 | 1511 | 1564 | 1548 |
| 1996-97 | 85 | #17 | 1509 | 1526 | 1471 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | SG | 65 | 6.7 |
| Rudy Gobert | C | 82 | 5.6 |
| Jaden McDaniels | PF | 79 | 4.3 |
| Julius Randle | PF | 85 | 3.9 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | SG | 80 | 3.4 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | SG | 23 | -0.1 |
Every Minnesota Timberwolves player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | L Minnesota Timberwolves 46.9% | L 109-139 ✓ |
| May 12, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Minnesota Timberwolves 28.7% | L 97-126 ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | L Minnesota Timberwolves 43.2% | W 114-109 ✗ |
| May 08, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Minnesota Timberwolves 50.0% | L 108-115 ✗ |
| May 06, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Minnesota Timberwolves 25.0% | L 95-133 ✓ |
| May 04, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Minnesota Timberwolves 33.4% | W 104-102 ✗ |
| Apr 30, 2026 | vs Denver Nuggets | L Minnesota Timberwolves 45.5% | W 110-98 ✗ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Minnesota Timberwolves 22.1% | L 113-125 ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Denver Nuggets | L Minnesota Timberwolves 47.9% | W 112-96 ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Denver Nuggets | L Minnesota Timberwolves 48.3% | W 113-96 ✗ |
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