Indiana Pacers
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Indiana Pacers?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 76 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Indiana Pacers were 9.6% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 76.3% | 67.4% | 83.0% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 99 | 54.5% | 67.3% | 74.3% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Indiana Pacers won 7 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 1 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #26 | 1490 | 1490 | 1321 |
| 2024-25 | 105 | #2 | 1511 | 1692 | 1680 |
| 2023-24 | 99 | #8 | 1511 | 1601 | 1576 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #25 | 1489 | 1539 | 1416 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #27 | 1491 | 1495 | 1339 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #17 | 1510 | 1538 | 1474 |
| 2019-20 | 77 | #10 | 1489 | 1589 | 1543 |
| 2018-19 | 86 | #17 | 1512 | 1598 | 1488 |
| 2017-18 | 89 | #10 | 1510 | 1599 | 1571 |
| 2016-17 | 86 | #18 | 1510 | 1550 | 1481 |
| 2015-16 | 89 | #12 | 1490 | 1571 | 1542 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #16 | 1510 | 1526 | 1511 |
| 2013-14 | 101 | #11 | 1510 | 1663 | 1557 |
| 2012-13 | 100 | #6 | 1511 | 1616 | 1607 |
| 2011-12 | 77 | #7 | 1510 | 1620 | 1587 |
| 2010-11 | 87 | #20 | 1490 | 1521 | 1466 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #19 | 1490 | 1520 | 1470 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #16 | 1490 | 1513 | 1493 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #19 | 1510 | 1529 | 1470 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #25 | 1511 | 1535 | 1400 |
| 2005-06 | 88 | #18 | 1512 | 1557 | 1476 |
| 2004-05 | 95 | #10 | 1511 | 1572 | 1546 |
| 2003-04 | 98 | #5 | 1511 | 1685 | 1646 |
| 2002-03 | 88 | #16 | 1510 | 1611 | 1494 |
| 2001-02 | 87 | #15 | 1490 | 1542 | 1511 |
| 2000-01 | 86 | #18 | 1490 | 1530 | 1501 |
| 1999-00 | 105 | #3 | 1511 | 1662 | 1654 |
| 1998-99 | 63 | #2 | 1510 | 1646 | 1621 |
| 1997-98 | 98 | #4 | 1491 | 1685 | 1676 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #15 | 1490 | 1532 | 1506 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | SG | 56 | 9.2 |
| Ivica Zubac | C | 41 | 9.2 |
| Jay Huff | C | 46 | 8.5 |
| Jarace Walker | PF | 38 | 5.4 |
| Johnny Furphy | SG | 21 | 4.4 |
| Aaron Nesmith | SF | 36 | 2.3 |
| Pascal Siakam | PF | 56 | -0.0 |
Every Indiana Pacers player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | L Indiana Pacers 19.6% | L 121-133 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | L Indiana Pacers 32.9% | L 94-105 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | at Brooklyn Nets | W Indiana Pacers 79.5% | W 123-94 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | L Indiana Pacers 34.5% | L 104-124 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Indiana Pacers 19.9% | L 108-117 ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Charlotte Hornets | L Indiana Pacers 12.1% | L 108-129 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | at Chicago Bulls | L Indiana Pacers 13.9% | W 145-126 ✗ |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vs Miami Heat | L Indiana Pacers 28.5% | W 135-118 ✗ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | L Indiana Pacers 22.7% | L 113-114 ✓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | L Indiana Pacers 26.0% | L 130-137 ✓ |
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