NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
43.4%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
56.6%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Washington Wizards
Bub Carrington
PTS
13.0
REB
3.8
AST
5.8
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tre Johnson
PTS
14.7
REB
4.3
AST
3.0
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Bilal Coulibaly
PTS
14.5
REB
5.1
AST
2.5
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Will Riley
PTS
16.3
REB
4.4
AST
2.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Anthony Gill
PTS
8.9
REB
5.1
AST
1.8
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Chicago Bulls
Tre Jones
PTS
17.2
REB
4.1
AST
6.9
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Collin Sexton
PTS
19.7
REB
3.9
AST
3.9
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Isaac Okoro
PTS
11.5
REB
3.9
AST
2.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Leonard Miller
PTS
13.9
REB
6.4
AST
1.8
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Guerschon Yabusele
PTS
14.0
REB
6.4
AST
2.1
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.6
DR
125.3
PTS
10.3
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.9
DR
118.7
PTS
13.7
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
103.2
DR
124.6
PTS
12.2
VS
Collin Sexton
OR
114.2
DR
119.6
PTS
17.3
SF
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
106.9
DR
120.4
PTS
11.4
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
115.0
DR
121.3
PTS
9.2
PF
Will Riley
OR
108.2
DR
125.1
PTS
10.2
VS
Leonard Miller
OR
116.0
DR
119.8
PTS
10.7
C
Anthony Gill
OR
100.2
DR
127.2
PTS
5.4
VS
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
113.5
DR
119.3
PTS
10.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Chicago Bulls are favored to win (63.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Anthony Gill. Chicago Bulls: Tre Jones, Collin Sexton, Isaac Okoro, Leonard Miller, Guerschon Yabusele.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 244.88 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo matchup. The expected spread is -3.66 (home - away), giving the Bulls about a 3.7-point edge as the home side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
244.9
Most likely outcome: 245 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Chicago Bulls)
-3.7
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show falling momentum over recent games.
Washington Wizards
1280.8
-20.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Brooklyn Nets | 1280.8 | -8.9 |
| 2026-04-04 | Miami Heat | 1289.7 | -4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1293.9 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-30 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1299.2 | -2.5 |
| 2026-03-29 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1301.7 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1361.4
-27.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Phoenix Suns | 1361.4 | -6.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | New York Knicks | 1368.0 | -5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Indiana Pacers | 1373.0 | -13.7 |
| 2026-03-30 | San Antonio Spurs | 1386.7 | -2.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1389.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 121 | -6 | |
| Miami Heat | 136 | 152 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 153 | -22 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 120 | -19 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 88 | 123 | -35 |
Chicago Bulls
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 110 | 120 | -10 | |
| New York Knicks | 96 | 136 | -40 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 126 | 145 | -19 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 129 | -15 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 124 | 125 | -1 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs arrive on three-game losing streaks. Washington has dropped games to Brooklyn (115-121), Miami (136-152) and Philadelphia (131-153), with their defense allowing 121, 152 and 153 points in those outings. Chicago has losses to Phoenix (110-120), New York (96-136) and Indiana (126-145), similarly showing defensive lapses while also sputtering offensively in the 96-point outing.
Looking at the expected starting units, the Bulls hold clear advantages: their five-man averages show an offensive rating of 117.52 and a defensive rating of 119.74, with average points made of 12.24. The Wizards’ projected five average 105.02 on offense, 124.52 on defense, and 9.90 points made. Tre Jones (offensive rating 128.9) and Collin Sexton (17.3 points made) give Chicago scoring punch, while Washington’s group has solid individual pieces but lower overall offensive efficiency.
Final Prediction
Chicago’s superior offensive profile and slightly better team defense among the expected starters give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether the Bulls can shore up their defense early; if they do, that should seal the win.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel