Washington Wizards
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record · includes the Washington Bullets years
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Washington Wizards?
On script 2025-26 · 76 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Washington Wizards were 19.1% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 77.6% | 67.4% | 88.7% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 79.0% | 67.3% | 82.8% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Washington Wizards won 6 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 0 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #30 | 1490 | 1501 | 1255 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #28 | 1488 | 1499 | 1298 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #30 | 1489 | 1498 | 1278 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #23 | 1511 | 1522 | 1427 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #22 | 1512 | 1560 | 1410 |
| 2020-21 | 77 | #16 | 1490 | 1522 | 1503 |
| 2019-20 | 72 | #24 | 1490 | 1502 | 1391 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #26 | 1490 | 1491 | 1397 |
| 2017-18 | 88 | #18 | 1509 | 1562 | 1493 |
| 2016-17 | 95 | #8 | 1490 | 1625 | 1575 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #14 | 1511 | 1520 | 1510 |
| 2014-15 | 92 | #11 | 1490 | 1592 | 1537 |
| 2013-14 | 93 | #13 | 1490 | 1583 | 1550 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #20 | 1490 | 1490 | 1432 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #24 | 1489 | 1489 | 1414 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #26 | 1488 | 1488 | 1354 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #25 | 1512 | 1512 | 1367 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1489 | 1317 |
| 2007-08 | 88 | #15 | 1490 | 1546 | 1510 |
| 2006-07 | 86 | #20 | 1491 | 1582 | 1421 |
| 2005-06 | 88 | #14 | 1511 | 1540 | 1513 |
| 2004-05 | 92 | #18 | 1512 | 1580 | 1504 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #27 | 1513 | 1514 | 1343 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #22 | 1490 | 1528 | 1431 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #20 | 1491 | 1548 | 1445 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #27 | 1490 | 1503 | 1301 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #23 | 1510 | 1510 | 1411 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #25 | 1490 | 1500 | 1407 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #13 | 1490 | 1540 | 1523 |
| 1996-97 as Washington Bullets | 85 | #12 | 1511 | 1566 | 1550 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | SG | 42 | 5.4 |
| Tre Johnson | SG | 42 | 4.9 |
| Alex Sarr | C | 42 | 2.9 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | SF | 54 | 1.9 |
| Bub Carrington | PG | 44 | 0.0 |
Every Washington Wizards player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Washington Wizards 24.5% | L 117-130 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Miami Heat | L Washington Wizards 12.2% | L 117-140 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Chicago Bulls | L Washington Wizards 27.8% | L 108-119 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Chicago Bulls | L Washington Wizards 43.4% | L 98-129 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Brooklyn Nets | W Washington Wizards 63.8% | L 115-121 ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Miami Heat | L Washington Wizards 8.3% | L 136-152 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | L Washington Wizards 29.3% | L 131-153 ✓ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | L Washington Wizards 10.0% | L 101-120 ✓ |
| Mar 29, 2026 | at Portland Trail Blazers | L Washington Wizards 13.0% | L 88-123 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Golden State Warriors | L Washington Wizards 18.6% | L 126-131 ✓ |
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