NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
75.5%
VS
Washington Wizards
Away Team
24.5%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
Craig Porter Jr.
PTS
7.6
REB
4.6
AST
5.2
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jaylon Tyson
PTS
15.7
REB
4.7
AST
3.8
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Max Strus
PTS
12.7
REB
5.1
AST
2.6
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Larry Nance Jr.
PTS
7.7
REB
4.1
AST
2.5
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
PTS
8.0
REB
5.1
AST
1.5
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Washington Wizards
Bub Carrington
PTS
13.0
REB
3.2
AST
5.5
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Leaky Black
PTS
9.0
REB
4.3
AST
1.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Will Riley
PTS
15.8
REB
4.2
AST
3.5
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Anthony Gill
PTS
8.6
REB
4.0
AST
1.8
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Julian Reese
PTS
12.9
REB
10.9
AST
2.4
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Craig Porter Jr.
OR
119.5
DR
113.7
PTS
4.5
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
106.9
DR
125.5
PTS
10.6
SG
Jaylon Tyson
OR
117.6
DR
116.1
PTS
13.1
VS
Leaky Black
OR
102.1
DR
125.8
PTS
7.6
SF
Max Strus
OR
109.0
DR
121.5
PTS
11.3
VS
Will Riley
OR
106.7
DR
125.0
PTS
10.4
PF
Larry Nance Jr.
OR
101.6
DR
111.3
PTS
3.6
VS
Anthony Gill
OR
102.2
DR
127.1
PTS
5.7
C
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
OR
107.8
DR
115.0
PTS
5.5
VS
Julian Reese
OR
105.3
DR
121.6
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The Cleveland Cavaliers are predicted to win (75.5% probability). Expected starting fives — Cleveland Cavaliers: Craig Porter Jr., Jaylon Tyson, Max Strus, Larry Nance Jr., Nae'Qwan Tomlin; Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Leaky Black, Will Riley, Anthony Gill, Julian Reese.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 223.69 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a faster-than-average pace. The expected spread is 11.64 points (Home - Away), giving a double-digit advantage to the home side — which aligns with the Cavaliers being the clear favorites.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
223.7
Most likely outcome: 223 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Washington Wizards)
11.6
Most likely outcome: 11 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s power rating is slightly rising (from 1601.3 to 1603.8 over five games) while Washington’s is falling sharply (from 1289.7 to 1257.3).
Cleveland Cavaliers
1603.8
+2.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1603.8 | -12.7 |
| 2026-04-08 | Atlanta Hawks | 1616.5 | +8.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1607.7 | +3.7 |
| 2026-04-05 | Indiana Pacers | 1604.0 | +2.7 |
| 2026-04-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1601.3 | — |
Washington Wizards
1257.3
-32.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Miami Heat | 1257.3 | -5.1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Chicago Bulls | 1262.4 | -8.1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chicago Bulls | 1270.5 | -10.3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Brooklyn Nets | 1280.8 | -8.9 |
| 2026-04-04 | Miami Heat | 1289.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 102 | 124 | -22 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 122 | 116 | +6 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 142 | 126 | +16 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 117 | 108 | +9 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 118 | 111 | +7 |
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 117 | 140 | -23 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 108 | 119 | -11 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 98 | 129 | -31 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 121 | -6 | |
| Miami Heat | 136 | 152 | -16 |
Game Analysis
Cleveland arrives with two wins and a loss in the last three: a 142-126 win over Memphis, a 122-116 win over Atlanta, then a 102-124 loss to Atlanta. Those results show Cleveland can produce big offensive outputs but also surrender points in spurts. Washington is on a three-game skid (117-140 vs Miami, 108-119 and 98-129 vs Chicago), with declining scoring and large margins of defeat.
Looking at the expected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 111.1 and a defensive rating of 115.52, combining for 38.0 points (7.6 per player). Washington’s projected five average an offensive rating of 104.64 and a defensive rating of 125.0, combining for 46.0 points (9.2 per player). Cleveland holds the edge in both offensive efficiency and, importantly, defense (lower defensive rating), while Washington’s starters are producing points despite weaker efficiency numbers.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s superior offensive and defensive ratings and a positive power-rating trend give them the edge in a projected 11.6-point game. Key factor to watch: whether Cleveland’s defense can contain Washington’s starters and prevent another game with opponents scoring 120-plus.
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