Cleveland Cavaliers
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Cleveland Cavaliers?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 94 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were 2.7% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 94 | 66.0% | 67.4% | 78.0% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 84 | 72.6% | 67.3% | 78.0% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Cleveland Cavaliers won 2 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 9 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 100 | #9 | 1490 | 1623 | 1588 |
| 2024-25 | 91 | #3 | 1513 | 1736 | 1653 |
| 2023-24 | 94 | #17 | 1511 | 1640 | 1520 |
| 2022-23 | 87 | #10 | 1491 | 1602 | 1553 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #18 | 1490 | 1591 | 1489 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #27 | 1510 | 1532 | 1328 |
| 2019-20 | 65 | #27 | 1490 | 1500 | 1368 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #29 | 1490 | 1490 | 1315 |
| 2017-18 | 104 | #6 | 1509 | 1635 | 1598 |
| 2016-17 | 100 | #2 | 1512 | 1644 | 1638 |
| 2015-16 | 103 | #2 | 1491 | 1722 | 1722 |
| 2014-15 | 102 | #2 | 1489 | 1719 | 1691 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #22 | 1509 | 1509 | 1449 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #28 | 1510 | 1510 | 1345 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #29 | 1489 | 1512 | 1348 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #28 | 1510 | 1510 | 1324 |
| 2009-10 | 93 | #5 | 1489 | 1707 | 1621 |
| 2008-09 | 96 | #2 | 1491 | 1748 | 1716 |
| 2007-08 | 95 | #11 | 1488 | 1565 | 1558 |
| 2006-07 | 102 | #5 | 1509 | 1647 | 1616 |
| 2005-06 | 95 | #6 | 1512 | 1614 | 1595 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #19 | 1489 | 1553 | 1476 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #18 | 1490 | 1529 | 1470 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #28 | 1488 | 1500 | 1302 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #24 | 1488 | 1490 | 1394 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #23 | 1511 | 1556 | 1374 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #22 | 1490 | 1521 | 1414 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #22 | 1489 | 1524 | 1445 |
| 1997-98 | 86 | #11 | 1490 | 1580 | 1557 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #16 | 1512 | 1580 | 1500 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Tyson | SG | 38 | 10.1 |
| Sam Merrill | SG | 34 | 9.8 |
| Dean Wade | PF | 51 | 6.1 |
| Donovan Mitchell | SG | 83 | 5.3 |
| James Harden | PG | 82 | 4.8 |
| Evan Mobley | PF | 75 | 4.4 |
| Jarrett Allen | C | 69 | 4.3 |
Every Cleveland Cavaliers player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Cleveland Cavaliers 62.0% | L 93-130 ✗ |
| May 23, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Cleveland Cavaliers 64.2% | L 108-121 ✗ |
| May 21, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Cleveland Cavaliers 41.2% | L 93-109 ✓ |
| May 19, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Cleveland Cavaliers 29.8% | L 104-115 ✓ |
| May 17, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Cleveland Cavaliers 47.2% | W 125-94 ✗ |
| May 15, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | W Cleveland Cavaliers 67.1% | L 94-115 ✗ |
| May 13, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Cleveland Cavaliers 30.0% | W 117-113 ✗ |
| May 11, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | W Cleveland Cavaliers 67.9% | W 112-103 ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | W Cleveland Cavaliers 66.1% | W 116-109 ✓ |
| May 07, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Cleveland Cavaliers 22.2% | L 97-107 ✓ |
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