NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves
Home Team
66.1%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
33.9%
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HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
Donte DiVincenzo
PTS
13.5
REB
3.5
AST
4.1
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jaylen Clark
PTS
7.2
REB
3.0
AST
2.5
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Terrence Shannon Jr.
PTS
9.6
REB
2.8
AST
2.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Julian Phillips
PTS
6.1
REB
2.5
AST
1.5
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Joan Beringer
PTS
8.4
REB
4.9
AST
1.1
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
Jeremiah Fears
PTS
19.7
REB
4.2
AST
4.7
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jordan Poole
PTS
17.4
REB
3.1
AST
3.6
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Micah Peavy
PTS
8.5
REB
3.7
AST
2.0
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Derik Queen
PTS
14.6
REB
7.9
AST
4.2
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
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Kevon Looney
PTS
5.9
REB
8.0
AST
2.2
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.7
DR
114.6
PTS
12.3
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
101.7
DR
119.4
PTS
14.0
SG
Jaylen Clark
OR
113.7
DR
115.8
PTS
4.0
VS
Jordan Poole
OR
98.9
DR
122.5
PTS
13.4
SF
Terrence Shannon Jr.
OR
86.2
DR
118.5
PTS
5.1
VS
Micah Peavy
OR
82.4
DR
120.8
PTS
4.0
PF
Julian Phillips
OR
89.2
DR
124.8
PTS
2.1
VS
Derik Queen
OR
105.2
DR
114.8
PTS
11.5
C
Joan Beringer
OR
137.1
DR
113.0
PTS
3.4
VS
Kevon Looney
OR
121.3
DR
119.0
PTS
2.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to win (66.1% probability).
Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark, Terrence Shannon Jr., Julian Phillips, Joan Beringer. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole, Micah Peavy, Derik Queen, Kevon Looney.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model pegs the game at a combined 235.79 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring contest likely driven by uptempo possessions and offensive bursts. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 2.16, giving the home side roughly a two-point edge in what should be a close game.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.8
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - New Orleans Pelicans)
2.2
Most likely outcome: 2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Minnesota’s power rating is largely stable over five games (small net change), while New Orleans is on a falling trend.
Minnesota Timberwolves
1553.3
-4.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Houston Rockets | 1553.3 | +12.2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Orlando Magic | 1541.1 | -11.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Indiana Pacers | 1552.1 | +4.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Charlotte Hornets | 1547.2 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1557.6 | — |
New Orleans Pelicans
1403.3
-16.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Boston Celtics | 1403.3 | -4.1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Utah Jazz | 1407.4 | +7.4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Orlando Magic | 1400.0 | -7.8 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sacramento Kings | 1407.8 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1419.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Minnesota Timberwolves
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 136 | 132 | +4 | |
| Orlando Magic | 120 | 132 | -12 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 124 | 104 | +20 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 122 | -14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 103 | 115 | -12 |
New Orleans Pelicans
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 118 | 144 | -26 | |
| Utah Jazz | 156 | 137 | +19 | |
| Orlando Magic | 108 | 112 | -4 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 113 | 117 | -4 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 106 | 118 | -12 |
Game Analysis
Minnesota enters 2-1 over the last three: a 136-132 win over Houston, a 120-132 loss to Orlando, and a 124-104 win at Indiana — showing scoring punch but some defensive lapses. New Orleans is 1-2: a heavy 118-144 loss to Boston, a 156-137 win over Utah, and a tight 108-112 loss to Orlando, reflecting volatility on both ends. The Pelicans can explode offensively but can also surrender a lot of points.
Looking at the expected starters, Minnesota’s group averages an offensive rating of 108.18 and a defensive rating of 117.34, with a combined 26.9 average points made (5.38 per starter). New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 101.90 and a defensive rating of 119.30, but combine for 45.7 average points made (9.14 per starter). That suggests Minnesota has a modest two-way edge in efficiency, while New Orleans relies more on starter scoring output.
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s steadier efficiency and slightly stronger two-way numbers give them the edge in a high-scoring affair. Watch how Minnesota defends the Pelicans’ starters — limiting Fears and Poole will be the key factor.
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