New Orleans Pelicans
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record · includes the New Orleans Hornets and New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets years
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the New Orleans Pelicans?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 76 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the New Orleans Pelicans were 2.0% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 71.0% | 67.4% | 79.5% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 80.3% | 67.3% | 86.3% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the New Orleans Pelicans won 6 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 2 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #21 | 1490 | 1490 | 1398 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #26 | 1510 | 1520 | 1329 |
| 2023-24 | 86 | #11 | 1511 | 1602 | 1547 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #16 | 1513 | 1587 | 1512 |
| 2021-22 | 88 | #16 | 1488 | 1516 | 1503 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #21 | 1512 | 1521 | 1457 |
| 2019-20 | 72 | #20 | 1490 | 1526 | 1471 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #25 | 1512 | 1539 | 1398 |
| 2017-18 | 91 | #7 | 1490 | 1630 | 1597 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #19 | 1489 | 1512 | 1476 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #25 | 1489 | 1489 | 1397 |
| 2014-15 | 86 | #12 | 1511 | 1551 | 1532 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #21 | 1490 | 1512 | 1450 |
| 2012-13 as New Orleans Hornets | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1511 | 1391 |
| 2011-12 as New Orleans Hornets | 66 | #21 | 1511 | 1520 | 1424 |
| 2010-11 as New Orleans Hornets | 88 | #13 | 1509 | 1609 | 1518 |
| 2009-10 as New Orleans Hornets | 82 | #21 | 1489 | 1543 | 1439 |
| 2008-09 as New Orleans Hornets | 87 | #15 | 1511 | 1594 | 1507 |
| 2007-08 as New Orleans Hornets | 94 | #6 | 1510 | 1674 | 1641 |
| 2006-07 as New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets | 82 | #13 | 1511 | 1545 | 1511 |
| 2005-06 as New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets | 82 | #21 | 1512 | 1558 | 1450 |
| 2004-05 as New Orleans Hornets | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1489 | 1323 |
| 2003-04 as New Orleans Hornets | 89 | #17 | 1509 | 1571 | 1471 |
| 2002-03 as New Orleans Hornets | 88 | #9 | 1511 | 1573 | 1541 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derik Queen | C | 48 | 8.5 |
| Saddiq Bey | SF | 63 | 6.2 |
| Herbert Jones | SF | 50 | 5.7 |
| Jeremiah Fears | PG | 45 | 2.3 |
| Trey Murphy III | SF | 60 | 0.7 |
| Zion Williamson | PF | 50 | -3.1 |
Every New Orleans Pelicans player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Minnesota Timberwolves | L New Orleans Pelicans 33.9% | L 126-132 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Boston Celtics | L New Orleans Pelicans 4.1% | L 118-144 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Utah Jazz | L New Orleans Pelicans 40.4% | W 156-137 ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Orlando Magic | L New Orleans Pelicans 25.0% | L 108-112 ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Sacramento Kings | W New Orleans Pelicans 76.5% | L 113-117 ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Portland Trail Blazers | L New Orleans Pelicans 42.7% | L 106-118 ✓ |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | L New Orleans Pelicans 41.0% | L 102-134 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Toronto Raptors | L New Orleans Pelicans 40.6% | L 106-119 ✓ |
| Mar 26, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L New Orleans Pelicans 27.5% | L 108-129 ✓ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L New Orleans Pelicans 17.3% | L 116-121 ✓ |
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