NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
94.4%
VS
Brooklyn Nets
Away Team
5.6%
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HOME Toronto Raptors
Immanuel Quickley
PTS
13.9
REB
3.8
AST
5.5
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Brandon Ingram
PTS
21.4
REB
5.7
AST
4.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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RJ Barrett
PTS
20.1
REB
5.7
AST
3.9
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Scottie Barnes
PTS
17.6
REB
7.0
AST
5.7
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jakob Poeltl
PTS
10.9
REB
6.9
AST
2.2
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Brooklyn Nets
Malachi Smith
PTS
10.6
REB
4.1
AST
4.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ben Saraf
PTS
12.4
REB
3.9
AST
4.8
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Drake Powell
PTS
9.4
REB
3.3
AST
2.2
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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E.J. Liddell
PTS
11.2
REB
5.1
AST
2.1
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Trevon Scott
PTS
9.5
REB
5.6
AST
2.8
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.3
DR
114.7
PTS
16.6
VS
Malachi Smith
OR
113.1
DR
116.1
PTS
8.3
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.8
DR
114.9
PTS
21.4
VS
Ben Saraf
OR
86.6
DR
120.4
PTS
7.4
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.1
DR
114.7
PTS
19.1
VS
Drake Powell
OR
100.0
DR
120.5
PTS
6.5
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.4
DR
110.3
PTS
18.1
VS
E.J. Liddell
OR
121.6
DR
123.4
PTS
5.2
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
128.3
DR
110.6
PTS
10.7
VS
Trevon Scott
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are predicted to win (94.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Brooklyn Nets: Malachi Smith, Ben Saraf, Drake Powell, E.J. Liddell, Trevon Scott.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 218.58 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring outing and a faster-than-average pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 14.01, giving a large 14.01-point advantage to the home side, the Toronto Raptors.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
218.6
Most likely outcome: 218 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Brooklyn Nets)
14.0
Most likely outcome: 14 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Toronto’s power rating trend is rising (+6.6 over five games) while Brooklyn’s is essentially flat to slightly down (-0.6).
Toronto Raptors
1529.5
+6.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | New York Knicks | 1529.5 | -7.9 |
| 2026-04-09 | Miami Heat | 1537.4 | +9.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Miami Heat | 1527.9 | +11.3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Boston Celtics | 1516.6 | -6.3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1522.9 | — |
Brooklyn Nets
1302.5
-0.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1302.5 | -7.9 |
| 2026-04-09 | Indiana Pacers | 1310.4 | -13.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1323.9 | +11.9 |
| 2026-04-05 | Washington Wizards | 1312.0 | +8.9 |
| 2026-04-03 | Atlanta Hawks | 1303.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 95 | 112 | -17 | |
| Miami Heat | 128 | 114 | +14 | |
| Miami Heat | 121 | 95 | +26 | |
| Boston Celtics | 101 | 115 | -14 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 128 | 96 | +32 |
Brooklyn Nets
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 108 | 125 | -17 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 94 | 123 | -29 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 96 | 90 | +6 | |
| Washington Wizards | 121 | 115 | +6 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 107 | 141 | -34 |
Game Analysis
Toronto comes in off two solid wins (128-114 and 121-95 over Miami) before a 95-112 loss to New York; that sequence suggests the offense can be potent and the team has rebounded well after the recent loss. Brooklyn has been inconsistent: a 96-90 win over Milwaukee sandwiched between two lopsided losses (108-125 to Milwaukee and 94-123 to Indiana), indicating trouble sustaining performance on either end.
Looking at the expected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating around 118.0, a defensive rating around 113.0, and roughly 17.2 points made per starter — balanced scoring and a high-end individual offensive piece in Jakob Poeltl (128.3 ORtg). Brooklyn’s starting group averages about an 84.3 offensive rating, a 96.1 defensive rating (note the zero entries skew the group defensive number), and only about 5.5 points made per starter; the Nets’ projected starters show limited scoring production in the provided data. Those splits favor Toronto’s ability to outscore and control the game.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s stronger offensive profile, deeper scoring from the starting five, and upward power trend give them a clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Jakob Poeltl’s efficient offense and interior presence can tilt the paint and keep the margin in Toronto’s favor.
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