Toronto Raptors
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Toronto Raptors?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 83 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Toronto Raptors were 2.8% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 83 | 68.7% | 67.4% | 78.8% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 76.0% | 67.3% | 86.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Toronto Raptors won 4 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 3 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 89 | #14 | 1512 | 1579 | 1539 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #24 | 1487 | 1497 | 1410 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #28 | 1509 | 1509 | 1319 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #13 | 1509 | 1534 | 1534 |
| 2021-22 | 88 | #9 | 1488 | 1610 | 1578 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #25 | 1488 | 1532 | 1396 |
| 2019-20 | 83 | #2 | 1510 | 1702 | 1682 |
| 2018-19 | 106 | #1 | 1510 | 1702 | 1702 |
| 2017-18 | 92 | #8 | 1511 | 1690 | 1596 |
| 2016-17 | 92 | #10 | 1511 | 1612 | 1552 |
| 2015-16 | 102 | #5 | 1510 | 1640 | 1611 |
| 2014-15 | 86 | #18 | 1510 | 1613 | 1483 |
| 2013-14 | 89 | #12 | 1510 | 1584 | 1552 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #18 | 1489 | 1491 | 1478 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #23 | 1511 | 1511 | 1416 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #29 | 1489 | 1501 | 1314 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #20 | 1510 | 1555 | 1459 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #19 | 1512 | 1531 | 1444 |
| 2007-08 | 87 | #20 | 1510 | 1556 | 1450 |
| 2006-07 | 88 | #11 | 1490 | 1605 | 1553 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1489 | 1374 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #21 | 1510 | 1530 | 1423 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #25 | 1509 | 1533 | 1397 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #27 | 1510 | 1510 | 1328 |
| 2001-02 | 87 | #14 | 1488 | 1556 | 1516 |
| 2000-01 | 94 | #10 | 1489 | 1586 | 1566 |
| 1999-00 | 85 | #18 | 1488 | 1574 | 1486 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #19 | 1512 | 1546 | 1467 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #27 | 1490 | 1492 | 1281 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #20 | 1489 | 1499 | 1427 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobe Walter | SG | 24 | 15.0 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | PF | 20 | 7.8 |
| Brandon Ingram | SF | 76 | 7.5 |
| Immanuel Quickley | PG | 64 | 4.5 |
| RJ Barrett | SF | 58 | 3.9 |
| Jakob Poeltl | C | 47 | 3.5 |
| Scottie Barnes | PF | 81 | -2.5 |
Every Toronto Raptors player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Toronto Raptors 29.1% | L 102-114 ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | L Toronto Raptors 42.3% | W 112-110 ✗ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Toronto Raptors 25.9% | L 120-125 ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W Toronto Raptors 54.8% | W 93-89 ✓ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W Toronto Raptors 55.3% | W 126-104 ✓ |
| Apr 20, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Toronto Raptors 30.2% | L 105-115 ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Toronto Raptors 25.0% | L 113-126 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Brooklyn Nets | W Toronto Raptors 94.4% | W 136-101 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Toronto Raptors 33.6% | L 95-112 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Miami Heat | W Toronto Raptors 83.2% | W 128-114 ✓ |
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