Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
14.9%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
85.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Boston Celtics

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +38.5 Boston Celtics
Home-court advantage +7.6 Charlotte Hornets
Season record & ratings +4.7 Boston Celtics
Home/road record +2.4 Boston Celtics
Recent team form +1.0 Charlotte Hornets

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 85% for Boston Celtics. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Charlotte Hornets
PTS 20.9 REB 5.7 AST 2.8 3PM 3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.3 REB 3.4 AST 2.8 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.7 REB 9.7 AST 2.3 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.6 REB 8.3 AST 2.3 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.7 REB 3.7 AST 2.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 8.5 REB 6.2 AST 1.5 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 3.7 AST 3.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 4.3 REB 3.0 AST 0.7 3PM 0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.9 REB 5.2 AST 6.3 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.6 REB 5.0 AST 4.9 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brandon Miller
OR
94.7
DR
114.3
PTS
22.0
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
125.6
DR
109.9
PTS
9.8
SG
Coby White
OR
63.0
DR
126.0
PTS
5.5
VS
Derrick White
OR
109.6
DR
112.0
PTS
12.8
SF
Moussa Diabaté
OR
132.1
DR
110.7
PTS
8.9
VS
Hugo González
OR
73.9
DR
111.8
PTS
3.8
PF
Naz Reid
OR
100.1
DR
112.4
PTS
16.9
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
118.0
DR
112.1
PTS
27.0
C
Sion James
OR
93.3
DR
117.0
PTS
5.2
VS
Paul George
OR
111.0
DR
104.4
PTS
21.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Boston is the clear favorite, with an 85% chance to win. Charlotte’s expected starters are Brandon Miller, Coby White, Moussa Diabaté, Naz Reid and Sion James, while Boston is expected to start Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Hugo González, Jayson Tatum and Paul George.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is about 213 combined points, suggesting a relatively low-scoring game. Boston is forecast to win by six, a meaningful but not overwhelming margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 212.9 Most likely outcome: 212 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Boston Celtics) -5.5 Most likely outcome: -6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s rating has risen over the last five games, while Charlotte’s has fallen sharply.

Charlotte Hornets

1462.1 -42.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Brooklyn Nets 1462.1 -10.5
2026-11-02 Detroit Pistons 1472.6 -11.5
2026-10-31 Philadelphia 76ers 1484.1 -9.4
2026-10-30 Washington Wizards 1493.5 -11.3
2026-10-28 Detroit Pistons 1504.8 -

Boston Celtics

1535.5 +16.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.5 +7.3
2026-11-02 Houston Rockets 1528.2 -9.8
2026-11-01 Orlando Magic 1538.0 +10.4
2026-10-30 Chicago Bulls 1527.6 +8.6
2026-10-27 Brooklyn Nets 1519.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 104 114 -10
Detroit Pistons 91 124 -33
Philadelphia 76ers 104 109 -5
Washington Wizards 79 95 -16
Detroit Pistons 89 97 -8

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 109 102 +7
Houston Rockets 93 109 -16
Orlando Magic 108 97 +11
Chicago Bulls 125 111 +14
Brooklyn Nets 125 124 +1

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the biggest separator. Boston has several scoring options, led by Jayson Tatum, who averages 27 points. Charlotte’s Brandon Miller leads the Hornets’ listed starters at 22. Miller gives Charlotte a strong scoring answer, but Boston’s starting lineup has more support around its top scorer. Charlotte’s home court is a counterweight, but Boston also has the stronger season ratings and home-road results. The Hornets have lost three straight, including a 33-point defeat to Detroit, while Boston has won two of its last three. Those results add to the sense that Boston enters with more momentum, even with Charlotte at home.

Final Prediction

If Miller can carry the scoring load and get enough help from the other Hornets starters, Charlotte can challenge Boston’s lineup advantage. Otherwise, Boston’s greater scoring depth could make the projected six-point gap difficult to close.

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