Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-10

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
37.4%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
62.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Orlando Magic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +21.3 Orlando Magic
Home-court advantage +7.6 Sacramento Kings
Rest & schedule +1.0 Orlando Magic
Recent team form +0.7 Orlando Magic
Lineup stability +0.6 Sacramento Kings

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Orlando Magic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Sacramento Kings
PTS 26.1 REB 4.3 AST 6.6 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.8 REB 4.7 AST 1.7 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.7 REB 12.9 AST 5.0 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.7 REB 7.3 AST 1.6 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.1 REB 3.9 AST 2.6 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
PTS 14.3 REB 9.1 AST 1.8 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.5 REB 6.5 AST 4.5 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.9 REB 4.4 AST 2.3 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.7 REB 6.4 AST 7.8 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.3 REB 3.4 AST 2.1 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Acuff Jr.
OR
103.8
DR
124.2
PTS
25.9
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
126.8
DR
114.6
PTS
14.8
SG
De'Andre Hunter
OR
104.8
DR
123.9
PTS
13.1
VS
Anthony Black
OR
119.7
DR
113.7
PTS
15.7
SF
Domantas Sabonis
OR
126.6
DR
119.1
PTS
15.3
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
98.9
DR
118.5
PTS
17.5
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
106.5
DR
118.1
PTS
10.4
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
104.0
DR
117.1
PTS
20.8
C
Zach LaVine
OR
114.1
DR
124.0
PTS
21.4
VS
Jase Richardson
OR
94.3
DR
118.9
PTS
5.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando is favored to win with 63 percent probability, a clear but not overwhelming lean. Sacramento’s expected starters are Darius Acuff Jr., De'Andre Hunter, Domantas Sabonis, Precious Achiuwa and Zach LaVine. Orlando’s are Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner and Jase Richardson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is about 229 points, pointing to a solid scoring game. Orlando is expected to win by roughly two points, making this a close matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 228.5 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Orlando Magic) -1.7 Most likely outcome: -2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have fallen over the last five games, with Orlando’s decline steeper than Sacramento’s.

Sacramento Kings

1426.8 -13.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Miami Heat 1426.8 -9.4
2026-11-06 San Antonio Spurs 1436.2 -8.7
2026-11-04 Los Angeles Lakers 1444.9 -8.5
2026-11-02 Dallas Mavericks 1453.4 +13.6
2026-10-31 Memphis Grizzlies 1439.8 -

Orlando Magic

1450.3 -38.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Golden State Warriors 1450.3 -7.3
2026-11-05 Phoenix Suns 1457.6 -11.1
2026-11-02 Washington Wizards 1468.7 -10.1
2026-11-01 Boston Celtics 1478.8 -10.4
2026-10-30 Toronto Raptors 1489.2 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 108 114 -6
San Antonio Spurs 109 124 -15
Los Angeles Lakers 103 116 -13
Dallas Mavericks 115 100 +15
Memphis Grizzlies 105 136 -31

Orlando Magic

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 119 126 -7
Phoenix Suns 104 117 -13
Washington Wizards 94 103 -9
Boston Celtics 97 108 -11
Toronto Raptors 121 114 +7

Game Analysis

The clearest separation is in the expected starting groups: Orlando has the more balanced two-way lineup, while Sacramento’s projected starters show more defensive vulnerability. Acuff’s 26-point average gives the Kings a significant scoring option, but Orlando’s advantage across the five positions is the strongest reason for the forecast. Sacramento’s home court helps narrow the gap, though the model gives that advantage less weight than Orlando’s starting-lineup strength. Both teams have lost their last three games, so neither enters with a recent winning run to change the matchup’s basic outlook.

Final Prediction

If Acuff’s scoring helps Sacramento take control early, the Kings’ home-court advantage could make Orlando’s lineup edge harder to turn into a win.

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