Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

Toronto Raptors

Home Team
45.6%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
54.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Boston Celtics

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +14.4 Boston Celtics
Home-court advantage +7.6 Toronto Raptors
Home/road record +1.8 Boston Celtics
Lineup stability +0.8 Toronto Raptors
Rest & schedule +0.5 Toronto Raptors

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Boston Celtics. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Toronto Raptors
PTS 8.9 REB 8.5 AST 1.8 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.7 REB 7.4 AST 2.1 3PM 0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 4.7 AST 4.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.8 REB 5.8 AST 2.1 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.8 REB 7.1 AST 3.0 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 8.8 REB 7.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 4.4 AST 4.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.8 REB 6.0 AST 6.2 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 4.8 REB 4.8 AST 1.0 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.3 REB 5.4 AST 3.3 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jakob Poeltl
OR
110.4
DR
111.9
PTS
8.5
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
122.5
DR
108.5
PTS
9.0
SG
Collin Murray-Boyles
OR
110.3
DR
110.4
PTS
10.7
VS
Derrick White
OR
113.8
DR
109.6
PTS
12.2
SF
Immanuel Quickley
OR
127.1
DR
116.5
PTS
17.4
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
122.5
DR
108.2
PTS
26.5
PF
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
120.2
DR
115.2
PTS
11.0
VS
Jordan Walsh
OR
94.7
DR
107.3
PTS
4.4
C
RJ Barrett
OR
113.9
DR
118.4
PTS
21.3
VS
Paul George
OR
112.7
DR
103.0
PTS
22.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Boston is favored, though narrowly, with a 54% chance to win. Toronto’s expected starters are Jakob Poeltl, Collin Murray-Boyles, Immanuel Quickley, Ja’Kobe Walter and RJ Barrett, while Boston is expected to start Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh and Paul George.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 220 points, and the spread model points to Toronto by about five, suggesting a close game. The winner probability and point spread come from separate models, and both results are shown for transparency: one favors Boston to win, while the other projects a Toronto victory by margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.6 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Boston Celtics) 4.7 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s rating has been rising over the last five games, while Toronto’s has been falling.

Toronto Raptors

1499.3 -3.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Memphis Grizzlies 1499.3 -11.8
2026-11-06 Milwaukee Bucks 1511.1 +9.8
2026-11-04 Denver Nuggets 1501.3 -11.3
2026-11-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1512.6 +9.9
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.7 -

Boston Celtics

1568.2 +40.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1568.2 +12.8
2026-11-08 Milwaukee Bucks 1555.4 +8.5
2026-11-06 Charlotte Hornets 1546.9 +11.4
2026-11-04 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.5 +7.3
2026-11-02 Houston Rockets 1528.2 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 102 118 -16
Milwaukee Bucks 121 107 +14
Denver Nuggets 109 128 -19
Los Angeles Clippers 125 118 +7
Los Angeles Lakers 125 131 -6

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 123 101 +22
Milwaukee Bucks 117 97 +20
Charlotte Hornets 119 80 +39
Milwaukee Bucks 109 102 +7
Houston Rockets 93 109 -16

Game Analysis

The biggest separation for Boston is its expected starting group, which the model strongly favors. Tatum leads the listed starters at 27 points per game, and Paul George adds another reliable scoring option. Toronto’s Barrett averages 21. Toronto’s home court pushes the other way, but Boston arrives on a three-game winning streak, with each win by at least 20 points. That recent run also fits the teams’ rating momentum, though the home setting keeps the forecast close.

Final Prediction

Barrett’s scoring is Toronto’s clearest route to changing the call. If he can keep driving the Raptors’ offense, their home-court advantage could be enough to turn the narrow projection in their favor.

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