Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-12

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
72.4%
VS

Charlotte Hornets

Away Team
27.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Phoenix Suns

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +7.9 Phoenix Suns
Home-court advantage +7.6 Phoenix Suns
Recent team form +3.5 Phoenix Suns
Rest & schedule +2.1 Charlotte Hornets
Season record & ratings +1.7 Phoenix Suns

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Phoenix Suns. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 23.0 REB 3.7 AST 4.3 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.0 REB 4.3 AST 2.0 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.0 REB 3.8 AST 3.2 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.9 REB 6.8 AST 2.8 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.5 REB 5.9 AST 3.1 3PM 0.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Charlotte Hornets
PTS 10.1 REB 2.7 AST 3.5 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 4.2 AST 3.5 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.3 REB 9.3 AST 2.1 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.6 REB 8.4 AST 2.6 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.8 REB 3.8 AST 2.2 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Devin Booker
OR
119.4
DR
123.3
PTS
25.1
VS
Coby White
OR
75.0
DR
127.8
PTS
7.0
SG
Dillon Brooks
OR
106.2
DR
122.2
PTS
14.9
VS
Grayson Allen
OR
114.6
DR
118.0
PTS
15.3
SF
Jalen Green
OR
89.6
DR
122.5
PTS
11.8
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
132.1
DR
110.7
PTS
8.9
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
120.6
DR
116.6
PTS
15.0
VS
Naz Reid
OR
99.1
DR
113.4
PTS
17.4
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
105.4
DR
120.8
PTS
6.5
VS
Sion James
OR
103.2
DR
118.2
PTS
6.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Phoenix is favored to win, with a 72% chance according to the forecast. Phoenix is expected to start Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Miles Bridges and Oso Ighodaro, while Charlotte’s expected starters are Coby White, Grayson Allen, Moussa Diabaté, Naz Reid and Sion James. The projected lineup and home-court advantage are central to the gap between the teams.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 223 points, suggesting a game with a solid scoring output. Phoenix is forecast to win by about nine, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 222.5 Most likely outcome: 222 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Charlotte Hornets) 8.7 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s rating has climbed over the last five games, while Charlotte’s has fallen, despite a modest rise in its latest reading.

Phoenix Suns

1481.4 +23.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Los Angeles Clippers 1481.4 +10.9
2026-11-09 San Antonio Spurs 1470.5 -10.0
2026-11-07 Houston Rockets 1480.5 +11.3
2026-11-05 Orlando Magic 1469.2 +11.0
2026-11-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1458.2 -

Charlotte Hornets

1462.5 -21.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Cleveland Cavaliers 1462.5 +11.8
2026-11-06 Boston Celtics 1450.7 -11.4
2026-11-04 Brooklyn Nets 1462.1 -10.5
2026-11-02 Detroit Pistons 1472.6 -11.5
2026-10-31 Philadelphia 76ers 1484.1 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 133 110 +23
San Antonio Spurs 96 122 -26
Houston Rockets 102 99 +3
Orlando Magic 117 104 +13
Portland Trail Blazers 119 132 -13

Charlotte Hornets

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 124 112 +12
Boston Celtics 80 119 -39
Brooklyn Nets 104 114 -10
Detroit Pistons 91 124 -33
Philadelphia 76ers 104 109 -5

Game Analysis

Phoenix’s starting group is the clearest personnel advantage in the forecast, with Booker providing the strongest scoring profile among the listed players. Charlotte has a productive option in Reid, but the forecast favors Phoenix’s overall starting five. Phoenix also has home-court advantage, which adds to its case. Recent form points in the same direction, though not overwhelmingly. Phoenix has won two of its last three and followed a heavy loss to San Antonio with a 133-110 win over the Clippers. Charlotte also had a strong win over Cleveland, but has dropped two of its last three, including a 39-point loss to Boston. Rest and schedule are a small counterweight in Charlotte’s favor.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s best path to changing the outlook is for Reid to turn his scoring production into a sustained advantage against Phoenix’s frontcourt. If that does not materialize, Phoenix’s stronger projected lineup and home setting support the forecast.

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