Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Francesco Passaro vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francesco Passaro

Rank: #144
65%
VS

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Rank: #106
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Francesco Passaro

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Ranking Trends

Francesco Passaro

  • Current #144 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #123 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #120 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #139 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-02-24

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

  • Current #106 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #143 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #252 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #242 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #197 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Francesco Passaro

Form Index: 44.7
ELO Rating: 447.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.9
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 61.0
Return Rating: 42.5

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Form Index: 56.3
ELO Rating: 426.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 252.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.5
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.7
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Francesco Passaro
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francesco Passaro
vs
0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Santiago, Chile is on clay at a 250-level event. The model projects Francesco Passaro to win with a 64.69% probability over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (35.31%), with a predicted total of about 22.96 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Passaro (rank 144) brings a higher Elo (447.72) but a lower form index (44.74) than Vallejo. He shows no accumulated fatigue from this tournament and has a surface strength index of 4.11. Vallejo (rank 106) has a stronger recent form (56.31) but carries 252 minutes of court time into this match; his surface strength index is 3.85. The mean serve indices differ markedly — Passaro 61.00 vs Vallejo 94.51 — a gap of more than 5 points, and the mean return indices also diverge substantially — Passaro 42.45 vs Vallejo 91.59 — another large gap, which suggests clear contrasts in serving and returning profiles between the two. Over their last three matches, Passaro is 1–2: a three-set loss to Alejandro Tabilo, a straight-sets win over Dino Prizmic, and a straight-sets loss to Vilius Gaubas, with mixed match lengths on clay. Vallejo is 2–1 in his last three, winning two matches in Santiago (including a long 166-minute win) and losing earlier to Thiago Monteiro in Rio; his recent wins in Santiago point to good immediate form but also account for his accumulated fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francesco Passaro - Adolfo Daniel Vallejo) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 21.23 total; the predicted aces are influenced by Vallejo’s substantially higher serve index, which suggests he will contribute most of those service winners. Clay tends to reduce ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so actual aces may be suppressed. The double faults prediction is 4.86 total; expected double faults could be elevated for the more fatigued player given longer rallies and physical demands on clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Passaro’s edge comes from a higher Elo and fresher legs, offsetting Vallejo’s stronger serve and return indices and better recent form. The key factor to watch is how Vallejo’s serve aggressiveness converts on clay and whether his accumulated fatigue increases his error count.

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