S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #54
69%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #46
31%
Expected Total Games: 27.4
Predicted Winner: Gabriel Diallo

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Ranking Trends

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current #54 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #38 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #41 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #55 2025-06-09

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #46 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #48 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #55 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #127 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1570.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.5
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 91.1

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 19.6
ELO Rating: 1433.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1498.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.1
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.3
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Elmer Moller (1-1) clay Madrid 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Munich 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vitaliy Sachko (2-0) clay Munich 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Bucharest 87 min

Adrian Mannarino
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) clay Geneva 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) clay Rome 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) clay Madrid 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) clay Barcelona 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gabriel Diallo
vs
0
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash at s'Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands is a grass-court test between Gabriel Diallo and Adrian Mannarino in an ATP 250 field. The model backs Gabriel Diallo to win (69.29% vs 30.71%) with a projected total of about 27.35 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Diallo enters the match ranked 54 with an Elo of 1570.83 and a form index of 33.57; his mean serve index (96.42) and mean return index (91.09) point to a well-rounded grass game, while his surface strength index sits at 22.93. Mannarino is slightly higher in the rankings at 46 but carries a lower Elo (1433.31) and a form index of 19.57. His serve and return indices (serve 94.84, return 87.13) are strong but marginally below Diallo’s numbers; both arrive here with no minutes logged in this tournament so fatigue is equal. Recent results show Diallo with one win in his last three matches (a straight-sets victory over Vitaliy Sachko) and two losses on clay to higher-tier opponents, indicating limited recent momentum but solid baseline of ability. Mannarino’s last three outings were all losses on clay — including straight-sets defeats — leaving him with a shaky run into the grass swing. Those clay results compress contextual expectations but do not provide evidence of current form translating to fast courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.4 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Gabriel Diallo - Adrian Mannarino) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Gabriel Diallo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

On grass, the aces prediction leans high: the predicted aces for the match are 14.63, and the predicted aces outcome should favor whoever steps up with free points behind serve. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 5.36; given the surface, players often trade risk for reward on second serves, which can inflate that number. Diallo’s slightly higher serve index suggests he could influence the predicted aces count more than Mannarino.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Gabriel Diallo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (42.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Diallo’s superior Elo, stronger recent single win and slightly better serve/return indices give him the edge on paper. Watch the serve/return battle early — the player who converts free points on serve and avoids untimely double faults will likely decide this short, tense grass encounter.

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