Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #73
45%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #32
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Ignacio Buse

Why the Model Favors Ignacio Buse

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +6.8 Ignacio Buse
Recent form +4.4 Adrian Mannarino
Serve & return game +1.9 Adrian Mannarino
Overall record & opposition quality +1.7 Ignacio Buse
Recent record by level +0.8 Adrian Mannarino

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Ignacio Buse. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #73 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-10-27

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #32 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #34 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #58 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #100 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #110 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 56.9
ELO Rating: 1696.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 225.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.8
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 34.4
ELO Rating: 1641.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.6
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Ignacio Buse
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) hard Shanghai 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Beijing 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fery (2-0) hard Winston Salem 71 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
1
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Ignacio Buse is a narrow favorite, at 55% to Adrian Mannarino’s 45%. The projection is for 23.8 games in this Vienna Round of 32 match.

Match Analysis

Mannarino comes in with the stronger recent results, having beaten Alex Molcan and Thiago Agustin Tirante in straight sets in Vienna. He also has a slight advantage in the serve and return comparisons, giving him a sound basis to challenge Buse. Buse’s higher ranking, 32nd against Mannarino’s 73rd, and stronger overall record against opposition help tip the forecast his way. He has lost his last three matches, so the narrow pick depends more on that broader standing than on recent momentum.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adrian Mannarino - Ignacio Buse) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Ignacio Buse wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mannarino is projected for 5.1 aces and 1.9 double faults, while Buse is projected for 6.1 aces and 2.3 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, which points to a small difference in aces, with Buse expected to produce slightly more.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Adrian Mannarino 5.1 + Ignacio Buse 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Adrian Mannarino 1.9 + Ignacio Buse 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 5.1 aces

Ignacio Buse

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 1.9 double faults

Ignacio Buse

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adrian Mannarino's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s recent form and marginal serve-and-return advantage give him a strong chance to overturn the forecast. If those strengths carry through, Buse’s ranking advantage may not be enough.

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