Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Aidan Mayo vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Aidan Mayo

Rank: #1000
34%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #83
66%
Expected Total Games: 22.1
Predicted Winner: James Duckworth

Why the Model Favors James Duckworth

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +12.2 James Duckworth
Recent record by level +7.7 James Duckworth
Serve & return game +6.3 Aidan Mayo
Recent form +6.0 James Duckworth
Age +3.6 Aidan Mayo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for James Duckworth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Aidan Mayo

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #323 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #285 2025-07-28

James Duckworth

  • Current #83 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #79 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #88 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #112 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #106 2025-07-28

Player Metrics

Aidan Mayo

Form Index: 33.5
ELO Rating: 1532.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1793.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.9

James Duckworth

Form Index: 33.0
ELO Rating: 1508.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1469.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Aidan Mayo
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roger Pascual Ferra (2-0) hard Los Cabos 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Evan King (2-0) hard Los Cabos 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Dhakshineswar Suresh (0-2) hard Winston Salem 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Nardi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Christopher Eubanks (0-2) hard Dallas 79 min

James Duckworth
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Giles Hussey (0-2) grass Eastbourne 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) grass London 58 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) grass Stuttgart 146 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aidan Mayo
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Los Cabos, Mexico — round of 32 on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level hard-court event. The model favors James Duckworth, who is projected to win with a 65.67% probability; Aidan Mayo is given a 34.33% chance. The match is expected to be relatively short, with a predicted total of about 22.12 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Duckworth comes mainly from overall strength and recent record by level; those two factors together swing the prediction toward him. Duckworth’s world ranking (83) and a higher surface strength index (13.18 vs Mayo’s 8.71) underpin that overall strength advantage, despite a slightly lower ELO (1508.5) than Mayo (1532.0). Recent form also nudges the model toward Duckworth — his grass-court run included a big win over Tallon Griekspoor, though he split results in his last three outings. Mayo brings positives that temper the gap: he posts a marginally higher ELO and stronger serve/return indices (mean serve 96.55, mean return 86.88), which the model credits as a serve & return game advantage for Mayo. Fatigue is a notable contrast — Mayo arrives having already logged 141 minutes on court in this tournament while Duckworth shows zero minutes here — that freshness amplifies Duckworth’s edge. Over their last three matches Mayo is 2-1 with two straight wins in Los Cabos; Duckworth is 1-2, with a hard-fought win against Griekspoor flanked by two losses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Aidan Mayo - James Duckworth) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (James Duckworth wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is moderate: the predicted aces total is 11.23. The expected double faults total is 6.28. On a medium-paced hard court this aligns with balanced serving — not as many aces as grass, more than clay. There is no significant gap in serve rating between the two to suggest one player will dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Aidan Mayo's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Duckworth’s edge stems primarily from overall strength as captured by ranking and surface profile. Key things to watch: Mayo’s serve/return efficiency and the impact of his accumulated minutes in the event; if Mayo sustains serve dominance early, the match could tighten beyond the projection.

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