Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Barrios Vera: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tabilo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 42) with a stronger form index (63.42) and a higher Elo (795.78) compared with Barrios Vera (rank 112, form 37.64, Elo 504.67). Both show zero accumulated fatigue from the tournament. Surface strength indices are modest for each (Tabilo 6.59, Barrios Vera 5.04). There is a notable difference in serving and returning profiles: Barrios Vera’s mean serve index (97.15) is about 8 points higher than Tabilo’s (89.13), and Barrios Vera’s mean return index (93.33) is far stronger than Tabilo’s (42.02), a gap of more than 50 points — these mismatches will shape many exchanges. Recent form tells a complementary story. Tabilo has three clay matches in Rio with two wins and a three-set loss to Tomas Martin Etcheverry; his matches there included two lengthy encounters and one straight-set victory. Barrios Vera’s Rio results are mixed: one straight-set win followed by consecutive losses against higher-ranked opponents, including a straight-sets defeat to Matteo Berrettini. Tabilo’s steadier form index and recent wins on clay are important, while Barrios Vera’s high serve and return metrics suggest he can threaten if he finds rhythm.