Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Andrey Rublev vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
72%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #76
28%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #14 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #8 (2024-07-15)

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current Rank: #76 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #79 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #109 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #90 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #91 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 72.0
ELO Rating: 2190.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1896.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 212.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 26.9
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 87.5

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 50.0
ELO Rating: 555.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 284.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Los Cabos 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Hernandez (2-0) hard Los Cabos 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lloyd Harris (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Aleksandar Kovacevic
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (2-0) hard Los Cabos 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luis Carlos Alvarez (2-0) hard Los Cabos 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hady Habib (2-1) hard Los Cabos 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Bernard Tomic (0-2) grass Mallorca 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinal match at the Los Cabos tournament will see Andrey Rublev face off against Aleksandar Kovacevic on hard courts in Mexico. Rublev is favored to win with a probability of 71.77%, while Kovacevic's chances stand at 28.23%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Andrey Rublev, currently ranked 14, boasts a strong form index of 71.97 and an Elo rating of 2189.98, which reflects his competitive edge and consistency. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is moderate at 212 minutes, suggesting he is still in good physical shape. Rublev's surface strength index is impressive at 17.38, indicating his proficiency on hard courts. Furthermore, his mean serve index of 97.85 is notably higher than Kovacevic's 96.29, giving him an advantage in serve effectiveness. In terms of returns, Rublev's mean return index at 87.50 also surpasses Kovacevic's 85.37, highlighting his ability to capitalize on opponents' serves. Aleksandar Kovacevic, ranked 76, has a form index of 50.01 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 555.93. His fatigue level is higher at 284 minutes, which may impact his performance against a seasoned player like Rublev. Despite this, Kovacevic has displayed resilience in his last three matches, winning all of them in straight sets. He defeated Juan Pablo Ficovich, Luis Carlos Alvarez, and Hady Habib, showcasing his ability to maintain a winning momentum, albeit against potentially less challenging opponents compared to Rublev's recent encounters.

Final Prediction

Rublev’s combination of superior ranking, form, and statistics suggests he has a clear advantage going into this semifinal. His notable strength in serving and returning could be decisive factors in the match. Observing how Kovacevic handles Rublev's powerful serve will be crucial in determining the outcome of this encounter.