Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 32

Alex de Minaur vs August Holmgren Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #11
71%
VS

August Holmgren

Rank: #192
29%
Predicted Games Played: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #11 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #10 (2025-03-31)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2024-12-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2024-09-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2024-07-01)

August Holmgren

  • Current Rank: #192 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #202 (2025-03-31)
  • 6 Months Ago: #200 (2024-12-30)
  • 9 Months Ago: #167 (2024-09-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #291 (2024-07-01)

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 68.7
ELO Rating: 2798.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1783.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 27.0
Grass: 28.3
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 88.4

August Holmgren

Form Index: 82.2
ELO Rating: 600.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 92.3
Return Rating: 83.1

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) grass London 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

August Holmgren
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yosuke Watanuki (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jozef Kovalik (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
August Holmgren
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Wimbledon tournament continues with an intriguing Round of 32 matchup between Alex de Minaur and August Holmgren on the grass courts of Great Britain. With a predicted probability of winning at 70.93%, Alex de Minaur is favored to advance, while August Holmgren has a win probability of 29.07%. The match is expected to see a total of around 38 games played.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur, currently ranked 11th, boasts a strong form index of 68.74 and an Elo rating of 2798.15. His fatigue level stands at 348 minutes, which is relatively low for a player at this stage of the tournament. His surface strength index of 28.34 indicates solid performance on grass, complemented by an impressive mean serve index of 95.87 and a mean return index of 88.37. The difference in serve strength compared to Holmgren is notable, as de Minaur's serve index exceeds Holmgren's by over 3 points, providing him with a significant advantage. Contrastingly, August Holmgren ranks 192nd and has a form index of 82.20, reflecting a strong recent performance despite his lower overall ranking. His Elo rating is considerably lower at 600.28, and he is experiencing more fatigue, having spent 522 minutes on court. Holmgren's surface strength index is just 4.99, indicating challenges on grass, and his mean serve index of 92.29 and mean return index of 83.14 are lower than de Minaur's, suggesting he may struggle to match his opponent's power and precision.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's superior ranking, form, and serve strength position him as the clear favorite in this encounter. The key factor to watch will be de Minaur's ability to leverage his serve against Holmgren, potentially dictating the pace and outcome of the match.