Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for de Minaur comes mainly from recent record by level (+8.2 percentage points) and overall strength (+7.8), with additional contributions from surface fit (+5.4), serve & return game (+3.6), and overall record versus opposition quality (+2.1). Those drivers match the player data: de Minaur sits well above on Elo (1797 vs 1631) and rank (6 vs 99), indicating a clear class advantage. His surface strength index (37.6) also outpaces Bonzi’s (16.4), which supports the surface‑fit lift on grass. Fatigue is a contrasting factor: Bonzi has logged 406 minutes in this event versus de Minaur’s 111, leaving Bonzi notably more worn down despite winning three matches here. Looking closer at game tools, Bonzi’s form index (50.0) is a touch better than de Minaur’s (40.8), and his return index is substantially higher (92.4 vs 84.7), suggesting he remains dangerous on opponents’ serves. Serve indices are close (Bonzi 96.1, de Minaur 93.4), so there’s no dominant serving gap. Recent results show Bonzi on a three‑match winning streak in ’s‑Hertogenbosch, including a win over Ugo Humbert, while de Minaur has also progressed with a straight‑sets win here and mixed results on clay at Roland Garros.