Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for de Minaur comes mainly from two areas: surface fit and recent form. De Minaur’s grass results this season are strong — three straight wins on grass (including London and s-Hertogenbosch) — and his surface strength index (39.95) is markedly higher than Shapovalov’s (13.34), which supports the +8.5 percentage-point surface-fit advantage. Recent form further tilts toward de Minaur: his form index is 50.58 versus Shapovalov’s 22.81, a gap reflected in the model’s +8.2-point boost. Looking at overall profiles, de Minaur is also stronger on Elo (1805.6 vs 1574.3) and rank (No. 6 vs No. 41), contributing to the model’s additional advantage. Fatigue and workload slightly favor de Minaur as well — he has spent 122 minutes on court in the tournament compared with Shapovalov’s 138 — which factors into the small fatigue edge. Serve and return metrics are comparable: mean serve indices are 94.29 (de Minaur) and 95.03 (Shapovalov) — not a significant gap — and mean return indices sit at 90.40 and 87.39 respectively, again within a few points. Over their last three matches, de Minaur has three straight wins on grass, while Shapovalov has one win and two losses, including long, draining matches.