Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
67%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #61
33%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 99.5
ELO Rating: 2972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1659.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 78.5
Return Rating: 38.2

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 76.3
ELO Rating: 949.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.5
Clay: 26.1
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 94.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik

  • Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Hong Kong 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Hong Kong 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Hong Kong 85 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Auckland 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 161 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Hong Kong 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexander Bublik and Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Round of 32 at the Australian Open promises to be an exciting contest on hard courts. With Bublik ranked 10th and enjoying a strong form index of 99.47, he is favored to win with a probability of 67.25%, while Etcheverry, ranked 61st, holds a 32.75% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 37.8, indicating a potentially competitive battle.

Match Analysis

Bublik's rank of 10 and an impressive Elo rating of 2972.83 reflect his status as a formidable opponent. His form index of 99.47 suggests he is performing at an elite level. Conversely, Etcheverry, ranked 61, has a considerably lower Elo rating of 949.77 and a form index of 76.32, indicating he is not in the same league in terms of current performance. Both players exhibit comparable levels of fatigue at 348 minutes, suggesting equal stamina. Notably, Bublik's mean serve index of 78.47 is significantly lower than Etcheverry's 97.87, indicating that Etcheverry possesses a stronger serving capability. However, Bublik's return index of 38.23 is also much lower than Etcheverry's 94.82, suggesting that Etcheverry may have an edge in returning serves. In their recent performances, Bublik has been in outstanding form, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set. His victories over Jenson Brooksby and Marton Fucsovics at the Australian Open demonstrate his ability to dominate. Etcheverry, while also successful in his last three matches, faced a tougher challenge against Miomir Kecmanovic, where he split sets before securing a win. His recent form suggests he is capable but may struggle against a player of Bublik's caliber.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at approximately 6.72, while the expected double faults prediction is around 4.11. Given the hard court surface, which typically offers a balanced environment for both servers and returners, these numbers reflect a moderate potential for powerful serves and occasional errors. Bublik’s lower mean serve index compared to Etcheverry might limit his ace count relative to his opponent, who is likely to produce a higher number of aces due to his superior serving capability.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Bublik's edge is derived from his superior ranking, recent dominant performances, and overall strong form. However, Etcheverry's powerful serve could play a crucial role in keeping the match competitive. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Bublik's return game against Etcheverry's strong serves.

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