Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
67%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #61
33%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 99.5
ELO Rating: 2972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1659.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 78.5
Return Rating: 38.2

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 76.3
ELO Rating: 949.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.5
Clay: 26.1
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 94.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Auckland 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 161 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Hong Kong 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexander Bublik and Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Round of 32 at the Australian Open promises to be an exciting contest on hard courts. With Bublik ranked 10th and enjoying a strong form index of 99.47, he is favored to win with a probability of 67.25%, while Etcheverry, ranked 61st, holds a 32.75% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 37.8, indicating a potentially competitive battle.

Match Analysis

Bublik's rank of 10 and an impressive Elo rating of 2972.83 reflect his status as a formidable opponent. His form index of 99.47 suggests he is performing at an elite level. Conversely, Etcheverry, ranked 61, has a considerably lower Elo rating of 949.77 and a form index of 76.32, indicating he is not in the same league in terms of current performance. Both players exhibit comparable levels of fatigue at 348 minutes, suggesting equal stamina. Notably, Bublik's mean serve index of 78.47 is significantly lower than Etcheverry's 97.87, indicating that Etcheverry possesses a stronger serving capability. However, Bublik's return index of 38.23 is also much lower than Etcheverry's 94.82, suggesting that Etcheverry may have an edge in returning serves. In their recent performances, Bublik has been in outstanding form, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set. His victories over Jenson Brooksby and Marton Fucsovics at the Australian Open demonstrate his ability to dominate. Etcheverry, while also successful in his last three matches, faced a tougher challenge against Miomir Kecmanovic, where he split sets before securing a win. His recent form suggests he is capable but may struggle against a player of Bublik's caliber.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Positive values indicate Alexander Bublik winning more games, negative values indicate Tomas Martin Etcheverry winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at approximately 6.72, while the expected double faults prediction is around 4.11. Given the hard court surface, which typically offers a balanced environment for both servers and returners, these numbers reflect a moderate potential for powerful serves and occasional errors. Bublik’s lower mean serve index compared to Etcheverry might limit his ace count relative to his opponent, who is likely to produce a higher number of aces due to his superior serving capability.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Alexander Bublik versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Bublik's edge is derived from his superior ranking, recent dominant performances, and overall strong form. However, Etcheverry's powerful serve could play a crucial role in keeping the match competitive. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Bublik's return game against Etcheverry's strong serves.

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