Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
37%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
63%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #4 (2024-08-12)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-12)

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 61.2
ELO Rating: 5983.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1885.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 309.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.0
Clay: 53.9
Grass: 59.8
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 87.7

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 72.1
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2358.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 413.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Cincinnati 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Cincinnati 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Cincinnati 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Cincinnati 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Toronto 172 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Cincinnati 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Cincinnati 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Cincinnati 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-1) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Zverev
vs
2
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Cincinnati Masters 1000, Alexander Zverev faces Carlos Alcaraz on hard courts in Ohio. The predicted winner is Carlos Alcaraz, with a 62.60% probability of victory compared to Zverev’s 37.40%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Both competitors hold impressive ranks, with Zverev at 3 and Alcaraz at 2, showcasing their elite status in the sport. Alcaraz boasts a superior form index of 72.09 to Zverev's 61.25, indicating better recent performance. Additionally, Alcaraz's Elo rating of 6661.20 surpasses Zverev's 5983.16, further emphasizing his current dominance. Fatigue levels are notable, with Zverev at 309 minutes and Alcaraz at 413 minutes on court during this tournament, suggesting Zverev may have a slight advantage in freshness. The surface strength indices are relatively close, with Zverev at 53.96 and Alcaraz at 54.58. In their last three matches, Zverev has displayed formidable form, winning decisively against Ben Shelton, Karen Khachanov, and Brandon Nakashima without dropping a set. Conversely, Alcaraz has also performed well, defeating Andrey Rublev in a competitive match, alongside two straight-set victories against Luca Nardi and Hamad Medjedovic. While both players have shown strong serving capabilities, Zverev's mean serve index of 98.07 significantly exceeds Alcaraz's 94.47 by more than 5 points, although their return indices are closely matched.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's higher form index and Elo rating provide him with a competitive edge, despite Zverev's stronger serve. A crucial factor to monitor will be how Zverev leverages his serving prowess to counteract Alcaraz's overall consistency and resilience in rallies.