Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Nicolas Arseneault vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Nicolas Arseneault

Rank: #1000
21%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #24
79%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

Player Metrics

Nicolas Arseneault

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 55.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1692.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 103.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.3
Clay: 0.1
Grass: 0.0
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 82.1

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 24.4
ELO Rating: 1277.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Nicolas Arseneault

  • Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Toronto 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Toronto 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Alexei Popyrin

  • Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Washington 157 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (1-2) grass London 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) grass London 151 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (1-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 182 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolas Arseneault
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Nicolas Arseneault and Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto promises to be a compelling contest on hard courts. With a significant difference in ranking, the predicted winner is Alexei Popyrin, with a probability of winning set at 78.74%, while Nicolas Arseneault stands at 21.26%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be 21.

Match Analysis

Nicolas Arseneault, currently ranked 1000, has a form index of 33.11 and an Elo rating of 55.71. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 103 minutes, indicating that he has already spent considerable time on court. His surface strength index is relatively low at 0.31, which may hinder his performance against a more established opponent. On the other hand, Alexei Popyrin is ranked 24 with a considerably higher Elo rating of 1277.87 and a form index of 24.41. Notably, he has zero cumulative fatigue, suggesting he is fresh for this match. Popyrin's mean serve index is 96.34, compared to Arseneault's 94.69, showing a slight advantage, while his mean return index of 86.93 surpasses Arseneault's 82.09 by more than 5 points, highlighting his capability to challenge Arseneault's serve effectively. In their recent performances, Arseneault won his last match against Valentin Royer, but he lost his previous match against Brandon Nakashima, indicating some inconsistency. Popyrin, however, has faced three consecutive losses in his last matches, which might affect his confidence, although the competition he faced was stiff. Despite his recent struggles, Popyrin's overall stature and experience give him an edge over the less established Arseneault.

Final Prediction

Alexei Popyrin's higher ranking, significantly better Elo rating, and fresh condition position him as the favorite in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Popyrin's ability to leverage his superior return game to put pressure on Arseneault's serve, potentially dictating the pace of the match.