Brussels Brussels Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen Prediction

Andrea Guerrieri

Rank: #165
22%
VS

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #35
78%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Why the Model Favors Alex Michelsen

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +7.9 Alex Michelsen
Recent record by level +6.5 Alex Michelsen
Surface fit +3.5 Alex Michelsen
Overall record & opposition quality +3.4 Alex Michelsen
Serve & return game +2.8 Alex Michelsen

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 78% for Alex Michelsen. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Andrea Guerrieri

  • Current #165 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #213 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #338 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #497 2026-01-19

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #35 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #44 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #37 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #38 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Andrea Guerrieri

Form Index: 65.9
ELO Rating: 1625.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 268.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.8
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 92.7
Return Rating: 90.9

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 1816.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1791.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.0
Clay: 18.6
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Andrea Guerrieri
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-1) hard Brussels 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Kimmer Coppejans (2-0) hard Brussels 118 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Aziz Dougaz (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Joel Schwaerzler (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Alex Michelsen
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Shanghai 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Tokio 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrea Guerrieri
vs
0
Alex Michelsen
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex Michelsen is favoured to win, with a 78% probability against Andrea Guerrieri’s 22%. The forecast is for 24.4 total games.

Match Analysis

Michelsen’s higher ranking and stronger overall record are the main separators. He also has the better hard-court profile, giving him an advantage on a surface that should suit his game. Guerrieri has won his two matches in Brussels, but has spent 268 minutes on court during the tournament. Michelsen’s recent defeats came at Shanghai, Tokyo and the US Open, and his stronger record at that level supports the forecast despite his less positive form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrea Guerrieri - Alex Michelsen) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Alex Michelsen wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Guerrieri is projected for 3.4 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Michelsen is forecast for 5.5 aces and 3.0 double faults. Michelsen’s stronger serving profile supports his projected ace lead, while Guerrieri is forecast to have the higher double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.8 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Andrea Guerrieri 3.4 + Alex Michelsen 5.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Andrea Guerrieri 3.7 + Alex Michelsen 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Andrea Guerrieri

Expected 3.4 aces

Alex Michelsen

Expected 5.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Andrea Guerrieri

Expected 3.7 double faults

Alex Michelsen

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Andrea Guerrieri's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Guerrieri’s slightly stronger return profile is the clearest way he could disrupt the forecast. If he can make Michelsen work harder behind serve, the favourite’s advantage could narrow.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel