Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pellegrino comes in ranked 155 with an Elo of 1589.7 and a form index of 41.2; Nardi is ranked 151 with an Elo of 1494.2 and a form index of 35.9. Fatigue is a clear differentiator in the raw data: Pellegrino has already logged 196 minutes on court in this event while Nardi shows 0 minutes. Both players have modest surface strength numbers on clay (Pellegrino 14.34, Nardi 10.17), suggesting neither is a clay specialist by the provided metric. On serve and return, mean serve indices are similar (Pellegrino 96.03 vs Nardi 95.21) so there is no pronounced serving advantage. Pellegrino does, however, carry a noticeably stronger mean return index (95.99) compared with Nardi (86.38), a gap greater than five points that could influence break opportunities. Recent form trends diverge: Pellegrino has won his last two matches at Rome (including a 131-minute three-setter and a straightforward 65-minute win) after a loss in Madrid, while Nardi’s last three recorded results are losses across hard-court events (Indian Wells and Dubai), with long matches of 132, 122 and 177 minutes noted in those outings.