Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Andrea Vavassori vs Ugo Blanchet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrea Vavassori

Rank: #291
50%
VS

Ugo Blanchet

Rank: #142
50%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Andrea Vavassori

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Player Metrics

Andrea Vavassori

Form Index: 52.8
ELO Rating: 366.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 196.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.8
Clay: 0.4
Grass: 0.4
Serve Rating: 84.5
Return Rating: 22.5

Ugo Blanchet

Form Index: 24.3
ELO Rating: 389.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1523.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 181.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 93.7

Recent Matches

Andrea Vavassori

Ugo Blanchet

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrea Vavassori
vs
0
Ugo Blanchet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Montpellier (hard court, 250-level event in France) features Andrea Vavassori against Ugo Blanchet. The model narrowly favors Andrea Vavassori to win (50.35% vs 49.65% for Blanchet) with a predicted total of about 22.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Vavassori (rank 291) arrives with a higher form index (52.76) but a lower Elo (366.88) than Blanchet (rank 142, Elo 389.89). Vavassori shows substantial serve ability in the data (mean serve index 84.52) but a weak return profile (mean return index 22.52). Blanchet posts a notably higher mean serve index (95.80) — a difference of more than 5 points — and a far stronger mean return index (93.67), a very large gap compared with Vavassori. Fatigue numbers from the tournament place Vavassori at 196 minutes on court and Blanchet at 181 minutes; surface strength indices are low for both, with Blanchet at 5.56 and Vavassori at 1.81. Looking at recent results, Vavassori has won his last two matches at Montpellier in straight sets (beats Hugo Grenier in 96 minutes and Roberto Carballes Baena in 100 minutes) after a loss in Adelaide to Aleksandar Vukic. Blanchet’s recent form is mixed: a dominant 2-0 victory over Bernabe Zapata Miralles (44 minutes) is offset by a long three-set loss to Titouan Droguet (137 minutes) and a straight-sets defeat to Coleman Wong at the Australian Open (174 minutes). Those recent scores show Vavassori’s momentum at this event versus Blanchet’s higher-ranked profile but less consistent recent form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrea Vavassori - Ugo Blanchet) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Ugo Blanchet wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. Positive values indicate Andrea Vavassori winning more games, negative values indicate Ugo Blanchet winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.57 total and the predicted double faults sit at 4.47. On hard courts — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce — this represents a moderate ace count compared with grass (typically higher) and clay (typically lower). Given Blanchet’s significantly higher serve rating, predicted aces may be skewed toward him, while expected double faults remain modest for the match in aggregate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Andrea Vavassori versus Ugo Blanchet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Vavassori’s slight edge comes from better form at this event and recent straight-set wins, even as Blanchet brings superior serve and return metrics. The key factor to watch will be whether Vavassori can neutralize Blanchet’s serve/return strengths early in rallies.

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