Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Arthur Fils vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
58%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #77
42%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #42 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2025-02-17)

Quentin Halys

  • Current Rank: #77 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #92 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #70 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #50 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #79 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 45.9
ELO Rating: 1219.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1734.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 70.9
Return Rating: 54.2

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 777.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 354.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Doha 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Montpellier 152 min

Quentin Halys
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-1) hard Doha 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan Choinski (1-2) hard Doha 133 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mert Alkaya (2-0) hard Doha 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) hard Rotterdam 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mees Rottgering (2-1) hard Rotterdam 113 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Quentin Halys
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Doha (hard court, ATP 500 level) pits Arthur Fils against Quentin Halys with a spot in the quarterfinals at stake. The model predicts Arthur Fils to win with a 57.96% probability against Halys’s 42.04%, and an expected total of about 24.06 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fils enters ranked 42 with an Elo of 1219.6 and a form index of 45.86; his cumulative tournament court time is 130 minutes and his surface strength index on hard is 9.97. Halys is ranked 77 with a lower Elo (777.25) but a slightly higher form index (50.19) and considerably more fatigue on record (354 minutes). Halys shows an unusually high mean serve index (98.82) compared with Fils (70.86) — a gap of nearly 28 points — and his mean return index (87.59) is also much higher than Fils’s (54.25), differences well above 5 points that are noteworthy for match dynamics. Recent results show Fils with one win in his last three (a three-set victory in Doha) and two straight losses earlier in the stretch against higher-ranked opposition. Halys has two wins and one loss in his last three matches at the same event, including a long three-set victory over Pablo Carreño Busta. The match durations emphasize Halys’s heavier workload recently (several long matches), while Fils’s shorter cumulative minutes suggest fresher legs in tournament play.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 8.89 total predicted aces; the expected double faults are 6.37. On hard courts — a medium-paced surface with consistent bounce — those figures are consistent with moderate serving rewards. Given Halys’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces in this matchup, while the expected double faults reflect some serving risk from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fils’s edge in Elo, fresher cumulative court time and a slightly better surface strength index underpin the model’s pick. The key factor to watch is Halys’s serve/return potency versus Fils’s relative freshness; how effectively Fils handles Halys’s serve will likely decide whether the match stays short or stretches out.

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