Soonwoo Kwon vs Arthur Gea: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Gea is driven primarily by surface fit and recent record at comparable levels, with overall strength metrics also nudging the probability his way; Kwon’s recent form and quality of opposition provide a counterweight. Gea’s surface strength index (24.24) is notably higher than Kwon’s (13.12), which helps explain the surface-fit lift toward Gea even though both values are modest. Kwon, however, brings the stronger recent momentum — a form index of 68.75 and back-to-back wins at Los Cabos — which is the largest single factor favoring him. Rank and ratings give a mixed picture: Gea sits higher in the rankings at 127 versus Kwon’s 158, but Kwon has the superior Elo (1677.18 vs 1560.09). Fatigue is a clear differentiator — Kwon has already spent 191 minutes on court in this event while Gea arrives fresh with zero tournament minutes — which may blunt Kwon’s form edge over longer exchanges. Serve profiles are close (Kwon 91.96, Gea 93.58); on returns Kwon enjoys a measurable advantage (mean return 92.22 vs Gea’s 87.00), a gap greater than five points that could be decisive on return games. Over their last three matches Kwon has two recent hard-court wins and a heavy loss at Wimbledon, while Gea’s form mixes a notable grass win and losses at higher-level events.