Zachary Svajda vs Arthur Gea: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Svajda comes mainly from recent form and recent record at this level, each pushing the prediction about 2.3 percentage points toward him. Svajda backed that up with a straight-sets victory over Daniel Altmaier in the opening US Open round, while his earlier results this summer were mixed. Gea earns a modest surface fit advantage, but that was outweighed by Svajda’s fresher legs and service and return profile. Serve and return factors moved the model 2.1 points toward Svajda, and fatigue and recent workload contributed 1.9 points in his favor. Looking at raw metrics, Svajda is ranked 80 with an Elo of 1670.69 and a form index of 45.06. His cumulative tournament minutes are low at 174.0, and his surface strength index is 23.09. Gea is ranked 86 with a higher Elo of 1712.27 and a stronger form index at 58.75, but he arrives with heavy fatigue at 696.0 minutes and a surface strength index of 31.74. Mean serve indices are close, 94.26 for Svajda and 93.38 for Gea, and mean return indices are also similar, 87.43 versus 87.93, so neither has a large edge purely on those ratings. Over their last three matches at hard courts, Svajda is 1 win and 2 losses with a recent straight-sets win at the US Open. Gea is 2 wins and 1 loss at this event, with hard fought matches and a five set win in his most recent match.