Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #24
67%
VS

Jurij Rodionov

Rank: #158
33%
Expected Total Games: 42.4
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

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Player Metrics

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 40.8
ELO Rating: 1647.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 23.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 90.3

Jurij Rodionov

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1569.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 92.1
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Arthur Rinderknech

Jurij Rodionov

  • Last Match: vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-2) clay Bucharest 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs George Loffhagen (2-1) clay Bucharest 165 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Rinderknech
vs
0
Jurij Rodionov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland-Garros in Paris, round of 128 on clay, Arthur Rinderknech is projected to get the better of Jurij Rodionov in a best-of-five Grand Slam encounter. The model gives Rinderknech a 67.09% chance to win versus 32.91% for Rodionov, with a predicted total of about 42.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rinderknech arrives ranked 24 with an Elo of 1647.13, a form index of 40.8 and no accumulated fatigue from this event. His surface strength index on clay is 20.6, and his mean return index (90.3) is notably stronger than Rodionov’s (84.0), a gap worth highlighting given clay’s return-friendly nature. Rodionov is down the rankings at 158, with an Elo of 1569.87 and a slightly higher form index (45.0), but he carries 174 minutes of fatigue from earlier matches. His surface strength index is 15.9 and his mean serve index sits at 92.1. Across their recent results, Rinderknech reached deep in Geneva on clay, winning two matches before a three-set loss to Alexander Bublik (last three matches: two wins then a loss). Rodionov’s recent sequence includes a lengthy 174-minute victory at Roland-Garros over Gustavo Heide and mixed results prior in Bucharest (one win, one loss), indicating resilience but also recent heavy court time. Those match durations and fatigue figures suggest Rinderknech will be the fresher player and his superior return numbers should be a decisive tactical edge on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.4 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Rinderknech - Jurij Rodionov) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Arthur Rinderknech wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. Positive values indicate Arthur Rinderknech winning more games, negative values indicate Jurij Rodionov winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: predicted aces are 15.87 total, while the expected double faults are 8.64. On slow, high-bouncing clay, aces prediction trends lower because the surface slows serves, and the expected double faults can rise as longer rallies and fatigue set in. With Rinderknech’s slightly higher serve and markedly stronger return, he may generate more free points on returns rather than an overwhelming ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 8.6 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Arthur Rinderknech versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Rinderknech's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (29.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Arthur Rinderknech's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Rinderknech’s combination of fresher legs and a clear edge in return ability provides the primary advantage in this matchup. Watch how Rodionov’s prior 174 minutes on court affect his serve and movement—break-point conversion and return aggression will likely decide the tie.

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