Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Benjamin Bonzi vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #100
37%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #59
63%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp

Why the Model Favors Botic van de Zandschulp

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.2 Botic van de Zandschulp
Recent form +3.6 Botic van de Zandschulp
Surface fit +2.3 Botic van de Zandschulp
Overall strength +2.1 Botic van de Zandschulp
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Botic van de Zandschulp

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Botic van de Zandschulp. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current #100 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #104 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #95 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-08-25

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #59 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #55 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #61 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #77 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #73 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 43.1
ELO Rating: 1607.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1659.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 296.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.7
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 13.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.1

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 53.7
ELO Rating: 1715.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1739.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.4
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Benjamin Bonzi
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Benjamin Bonzi
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Winston Salem, North Carolina is on hard courts at a 250-level event. The model favors Botic van de Zandschulp to win, with a 62.83% probability versus Benjamin Bonzi at 37.17%. The match is projected to be relatively short, with an expected total of about 24.9 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for van de Zandschulp comes mainly from serve and return factors, with recent form and surface fit also adding weight. Van de Zandschulp carries the higher Elo at 1715.85 versus Bonzi’s 1607.04, and a stronger form index at 53.72 against 43.14. Those margins feed into the model’s tilt even though both players show similar serve and return indices. Bonzi’s mean serve index is 96.80 and his mean return index is 89.06. Van de Zandschulp posts a mean serve index of 95.34 and a mean return index of 88.67. Neither player shows a gap greater than five points on those measures. Fatigue is a clear differentiator. Bonzi has logged 296 minutes in this event, more than double van de Zandschulp’s 138 minutes. Surface strength also favors van de Zandschulp, 30.43 to 22.66. Recent results underline the form picture. Bonzi has won three straight matches here, including a straight sets win over Rinky Hijikata after a 131 minute battle with Quentin Halys. Van de Zandschulp has two clean wins in Winston Salem and a loss in Cincinnati prior to this week. Those results support the model signals for steady performance and recovery.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Benjamin Bonzi - Botic van de Zandschulp) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Botic van de Zandschulp wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard court match is 13.02 total, with predicted aces split 5.54 for Bonzi and 7.77 for van de Zandschulp. The expected double faults total is 6.86, divided roughly 2.90 for Bonzi and 4.00 for van de Zandschulp. Hard courts are medium paced and tend to produce a moderate number of aces, which aligns with these predicted aces and expected double faults numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Benjamin Bonzi 5.5 + Botic van de Zandschulp 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Benjamin Bonzi 2.9 + Botic van de Zandschulp 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 5.5 aces

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 2.9 double faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 4.0 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Benjamin Bonzi's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (36.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Van de Zandschulp’s advantage is driven chiefly by the serve and return profile and a stronger recent form. Watch Bonzi’s accumulated court time as the match unfolds, since fatigue could be the decisive factor in tight service games.

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