Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Bernard Tomic vs Corentin Moutet Prediction

Bernard Tomic

Rank: #168
24%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #38
76%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

Ranking Trends

Bernard Tomic

  • Current Rank: #168 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #211 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #232 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #212 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #207 (2024-10-14)

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #38 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #62 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #76 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #69 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #71 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Bernard Tomic

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 393.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 209.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 2.5
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 86.0

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1179.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Bernard Tomic
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (2-1) hard Almaty 119 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Yevseyev (2-1) hard Almaty 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-2) hard Shanghai 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-2) hard Chengdu 99 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Chengdu 94 min

Corentin Moutet
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Shanghai 156 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Beijing 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Beijing 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Hangzhou 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-1) hard Hangzhou 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Bernard Tomic
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Almaty tournament in Kazakhstan, Bernard Tomic faces off against Corentin Moutet on a hard surface. The match is expected to be competitive, but Moutet is favored to win with a probability of 76.48%, compared to Tomic's 23.52%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 23.

Match Analysis

Bernard Tomic is currently ranked 168, showcasing a form index of 46.68 and an Elo rating of 393.26. His cumulative fatigue level is at 209 minutes, which may impact his performance. Tomic holds a surface strength index of 2.71, indicating a struggle on hard courts. In contrast, Corentin Moutet is ranked 38, with a form index of 34.05 and an impressive Elo rating of 1179.16. Notably, Moutet has zero cumulative fatigue, suggesting he enters the match fresh, and his surface strength index is significantly higher at 9.21. The mean serve index for Tomic (96.43) is slightly better than Moutet's (94.88), but the difference in their mean return indices is notable, with Moutet (88.61) having an advantage over Tomic (86.00) by more than 5 points. Both players have had mixed results in their recent matches. Tomic's last three games show two wins, including a recent victory against Marc-Andrea Huesler, while Moutet has lost his last two matches against top opponents, Learner Tien and Alexander Zverev. Prior to those losses, Moutet secured a victory against Tallon Griekspoor, demonstrating his capability to perform well against lower-ranked players.

Final Prediction

Corentin Moutet's significant advantages in terms of ranking, freshness, and surface strength index position him as the favorite in this matchup. Key to watch will be Moutet's ability to leverage his return game effectively against Tomic's serve, which could dictate the flow of the match.