Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #67
44%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #33
56%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 50.5
ELO Rating: 889.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 73.7
Return Rating: 70.5

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 36.1
ELO Rating: 1327.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 11.1
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Last Match: vs Luka Pavlovic (2-0) hard Rotterdam 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Montpellier 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Rotterdam 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) hard Adelaide 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match in Rotterdam, Netherlands — a 500-level hard-court event — pits Botic van de Zandschulp against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The model favors Tsitsipas to win (56.06%) over van de Zandschulp (43.94%), with an expected total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Van de Zandschulp comes in ranked 67 with an Elo around 890, a form index near 50.5 and a surface strength index of roughly 6.98. He has logged 95 minutes on court so far in the tournament, indicating slightly higher cumulative fatigue than his opponent. Tsitsipas is ranked 33 with a substantially higher Elo (≈1327), a form index near 36.1 and a surface strength index of about 10.40; his tournament fatigue is 81 minutes. The gap in mean serve index is large (Tsitsipas ~97.7 vs van de Zandschulp ~73.7), and the mean return index gap is also notable (Tsitsipas ~88.4 vs van de Zandschulp ~70.5), both differences greater than 5 points and likely to shape service holds and break opportunities. Looking at recent results, van de Zandschulp won his Rotterdam opener in straight sets (95 minutes) but lost his two prior hard-court matches: a straight-sets defeat to Ugo Humbert and a long loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. Tsitsipas beat Arthur Rinderknech in Rotterdam in straight sets, while his prior Australian Open sequence included a five-set defeat to Tomas Machac and a three-set win over Shintaro Mochizuki. The recent patterns show both players capable of short and extended matches, but Tsitsipas’ higher serve/return indices give him statistical control on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Botic van de Zandschulp - Stefanos Tsitsipas) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. Positive values indicate Botic van de Zandschulp winning more games, negative values indicate Stefanos Tsitsipas winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 15.35 total, and the expected double faults figure is roughly 3.91. On a medium-paced hard court that balances power and consistency, the predicted aces reflect a moderate to high serve impact; with Tsitsipas’ significantly higher serve rating, he is the main driver of the predicted aces. The expected double faults remain low, consistent with both players’ profiles on hard surfaces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’ clear advantages in Elo, serving and returning metrics give him the edge in this projected outcome. A key factor to watch will be whether van de Zandschulp can convert his return opportunities early to disrupt Tsitsipas’ serve rhythm.

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