Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jordan Thompson vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #78
33%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
67%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Jordan Thompson

  • Current #78 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #26 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #29 2024-09-23

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #33 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #38 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #36 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 39.2
ELO Rating: 1284.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.5

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 1138.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.3

Recent Matches

Jordan Thompson
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Chengdu 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Chengdu 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Chengdu 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jordan Thompson
vs
1
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jordan Thompson and Brandon Nakashima takes place in the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, Japan, on hard courts. Nakashima is favored to win, with a probability of 66.87%, while Thompson has a win probability of 33.13%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jordan Thompson currently holds a rank of 78 and displays a form index of 39.21, indicating his recent struggles on the court. His Elo rating stands at 1284.51, which is relatively decent, but his surface strength index of 13.31 suggests he has not been particularly strong on hard courts. With a mean serve index of 97.48 and a mean return index of 86.54, his serve is competitive, but it does not significantly outpace Nakashima's metrics. In contrast, Brandon Nakashima ranks 33 with a higher form index of 52.44, reflecting his more consistent performances recently. His Elo rating of 1138.51 is lower than Thompson's, but he has demonstrated better results in recent matches. Nakashima's mean serve index is at 96.54, while his mean return index is 84.29. Although the difference in serve index is minimal, Thompson's return index is notably higher, which could play a crucial role in the match dynamics. Both players enter this match without cumulative fatigue from the current tournament.

Final Prediction

Brandon Nakashima has the upper hand due to his higher rank and form index, suggesting a more favorable recent performance trajectory. A key factor to observe will be how Thompson's stronger return game holds up against Nakashima's serve, potentially influencing the match's outcome.

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