Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agut: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nakashima arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 32) with an Elo of 1626.50 and a form index of 34.06. He shows strong serving and returning components in the proprietary indices: mean serve 96.75 and mean return 88.97, and a surface strength index of 13.96. Bautista Agut is ranked 98 with an Elo of 1532.05 and a form index of 32.44; his mean serve is 95.42, mean return 87.47 and surface strength 11.63. Neither player posts a mean serve or return index more than five points above the other, so their baseline serving profiles are broadly similar on paper. Fatigue is a notable contrast: Nakashima has 0 minutes on court in this event, while Bautista Agut has accrued 120 minutes, which could matter on physically demanding clay. Recent form is mixed for both. Nakashima is 1–2 in his last three matches on clay: a straight-sets win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Barcelona), then losses to Arthur Fils (Barcelona) and Alexander Blockx (Madrid), the latter a three-set match of 111 minutes. Bautista Agut is also 1–2 over his last three: a 120-minute straight-sets win over Francesco Maestrelli in Rome, and earlier defeats to Thiago Tirante and Matteo Berrettini. Those results suggest both players have been tested on clay recently, but Nakashima’s higher Elo and fresher legs tilt the balance.