Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s slight edge for Shapovalov comes mainly from recent record by level and age, while Norrie picks up marginal support from recent form and a compact serve-and-return profile. Shapovalov’s recent results at this event and at comparable levels add 1.4 percentage points to his probability, and age contributes another 1.3 points in his favour; conversely, Norrie’s steadier form over the last weeks adds 0.8 points and his serve/return balance adds 0.6 points to his chances. Looking at the raw numbers, Norrie is the higher-ranked player (No. 39) with an Elo of 1651.4 and a form index of 26.35; he’s played 223 minutes so far in the tournament and posts a surface strength index of 34.89. Shapovalov is ranked 68 with a lower Elo (1597.7) but a slightly higher form index (31.64), and he carries more court time into the semis (283 minutes) with a surface strength index of 30.76. The two are closely matched on serve and return metrics — mean serve indices are 96.69 (Norrie) vs 95.49 (Shapovalov), and mean return indices are 89.67 vs 88.71 — so neither has a gap larger than 5 points. Both players arrive in good touch: Norrie has three straight wins at Los Cabos (straight sets in each), while Shapovalov also won his last three, including one three-seter that pushed 120 minutes.