Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #41
29%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.0 Francisco Cerundolo
Serve & return game +3.8 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall strength +3.2 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall record & opposition quality +2.4 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent form +2.0 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #41 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #23 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #27 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-10-27

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #19 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #21 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 21.7
ELO Rating: 1625.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1714.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.8
Clay: 22.8
Grass: 22.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.5

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 1791.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.0
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Francisco Cerundolo is favoured at 71% to Cameron Norrie’s 29%, with 23.2 games expected. The projected game count points to a competitive match despite the clear gap in win probability.

Match Analysis

The recent-record contrast is significant. Norrie has lost his last three matches, while Cerundolo won twice in Brussels before a three-set defeat to Tallon Griekspoor. Cerundolo’s ranking, 19th to Norrie’s 41st, also reflects the broader strength gap behind the forecast. Cerundolo has the stronger hard-court profile and a slight return advantage, giving him more scope to pressure Norrie’s service games. Norrie’s serve is marginally stronger, but the balance of serve and return, along with Cerundolo’s higher overall level, favours the Argentine.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Francisco Cerundolo) -2.9 Most likely spread: -3 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Norrie is projected for 4.5 aces and 2.0 double faults, against 5.9 aces and 2.5 double faults for Cerundolo. Their serving levels are close, and the consistent bounce on hard courts suits both, though Cerundolo is expected to find a few more aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.2 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Cameron Norrie 4.5 + Francisco Cerundolo 5.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Cameron Norrie 2.0 + Francisco Cerundolo 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 4.5 aces

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 5.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 2.0 double faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Cameron Norrie's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (44.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Norrie’s best chance to overturn the forecast is to turn his slight serving advantage into free points, limiting Cerundolo’s opportunities to use his marginally stronger return.

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