Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #59
48%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #67
52%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #59 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #102 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #108 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #152 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #215 2025-03-31

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #67 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #49 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #56 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #63 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 64.9
ELO Rating: 1614.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1700.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 181.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.3
Clay: 40.5
Grass: 39.5
Serve Rating: 67.5
Return Rating: 71.7

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1569.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 166.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 40.7
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Ignacio Buse
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-1) clay Marrakech 181 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (1-2) hard Miami 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-1) hard Miami 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Moez Echargui (2-1) hard Miami 166 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-2) hard Indian Wells 133 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Timofey Skatov (2-1) clay Marrakech 166 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-1) hard Miami 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Miami 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Indian Wells 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-0) hard Indian Wells 110 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ignacio Buse
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Marrakech, Morocco, the round-of-16 clash on clay in this 250-level event shapes up as a tight affair between Ignacio Buse and Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The model gives a narrow edge to Camilo Ugo Carabelli (51.77%) over Ignacio Buse (48.23%), with a predicted total of about 23.8 games—roughly a straight-set or tight three-set encounter.

Match Analysis

Buse arrives with the higher ranking (59 vs 67) and a superior Elo (1614.7 vs 1569.0) and form index (64.94 vs 52.29), suggesting he’s been the steadier player recently. He has accumulated more minutes this week (181 vs 166), which raises fatigue concerns late in matches on clay. Both players show nearly identical surface strength indices (≈40.5), so neither has a pronounced clay pedigree advantage on paper. Where the matchup swings is serve and return dynamics: Carabelli’s mean serve index (98.12) towers over Buse’s (67.51)—a >30-point gap—while his mean return index (91.97) likewise exceeds Buse’s (71.75) by >20 points. Those are substantial differences that favour Carabelli in short points and service holds. Recent form is similar in results: both won their Marrakech openers in three sets (Buse over Berrettini, Carabelli over Skatov). In their prior two matches each—mostly on hard courts in Miami—both posted a 1-1 record, underlining comparable win/loss rhythm despite different match lengths.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ignacio Buse - Camilo Ugo Carabelli) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 9.15 for the match while the double faults prediction is near 5.1. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and high bounce sap serve speed; this likely keeps the predicted aces modest. Given Carabelli’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the likeliest source of most of the predicted aces, though the surface will blunt that advantage. Expected double faults may creep up as rallies lengthen and fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.2 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carabelli’s edge comes from overwhelming serve and return indices that can decide short points, combined with slightly lower minutes on court this week. The key factor to watch is how effectively Carabelli’s serve holds up on slow clay under pressure and whether Buse’s returning consistency can force breaks.

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