Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
72%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
28%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-09-23

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #33 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #38 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #36 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 82.9
ELO Rating: 6918.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 169.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.0

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 62.6
ELO Rating: 1177.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 299.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.3

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the 2025 Tokyo tournament, Carlos Alcaraz, ranked No. 1, is set to face Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked No. 33. The match will be played on hard courts, and Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 72.34%, compared to Nakashima's 27.66%. The predicted total number of games played is 22.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts an impressive form index of 82.89 and an Elo rating of 6918.31, indicating his top-tier performance capabilities. His fatigue level stands at 169 minutes, which is relatively low considering the stakes of the match. Alcaraz's surface strength index of 56.96 suggests he is well-suited for hard courts, and his mean serve index of 95.53 significantly outmatches Nakashima's 96.55, with only a slight difference. Conversely, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.04 provides him with a strong advantage over Nakashima, who has a mean return index of 84.32. Brandon Nakashima, while demonstrating resilience with a form index of 62.56, has an Elo rating of 1177.71 and a cumulative fatigue of 299 minutes. His recent performances show promise, winning his last match against Marton Fucsovics without dropping a set. However, he faced a tougher match against Jordan Thompson, winning in three sets, and suffered a loss to Alejandro Tabilo in Chengdu earlier. Alcaraz's recent form is superior, having won all of his last three matches convincingly.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's edge in ranking, form, and overall performance metrics positions him as the clear favorite in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's return game, as his ability to capitalize on Nakashima's serve may dictate the match's tempo and outcome.

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