Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
69%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
31%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #1 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-23)

Casper Ruud

  • Current Rank: #12 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #15 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #6 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #6 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2024-09-23)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 80.2
ELO Rating: 6918.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 249.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 64.4
ELO Rating: 3109.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1786.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 255.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.9
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 35.0
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Tokio 58 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Tokio 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-1) hard Tokio 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The highly anticipated semifinal match in Tokyo, Japan, sees world number one Carlos Alcaraz face off against twelfth-ranked Casper Ruud on hard courts. Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 69.21%, while Ruud has a 30.79% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts a strong ranking of 1 and an impressive form index of 80.23, coupled with an Elo rating of 6918.31, indicating his current dominance in the sport. His fatigue level stands at 249 minutes, which is manageable given his performance in the tournament. Alcaraz demonstrates substantial strength on hard surfaces with a surface strength index of 56.96. His mean serve index of 95.58 suggests he has a slight edge over Ruud, who has a mean serve index of 95.50. Notably, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.09 is higher than Ruud's 85.88, giving him another advantage in returning serves effectively. Casper Ruud, while showing commendable form with a form index of 64.40, ranks lower at 12. His Elo rating of 3109.40 reflects a significant gap in experience and performance compared to Alcaraz. Ruud has faced a slightly higher cumulative fatigue of 255 minutes but still managed to secure victories in his last three matches, showcasing resilience. His recent performances include dominating wins against Aleksandar Vukic, Matteo Berrettini, and Shintaro Mochizuki, each in straight sets, indicating his capability to compete at a high level.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and ability to perform well on hard surfaces give him a definitive edge heading into this semifinal. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's return game, as his higher return index may put additional pressure on Ruud's serve, potentially dictating the flow of the match.