Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Clement Chidekh vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

Clement Chidekh

Rank: #152
33%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #87
67%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

Why the Model Favors Jacob Fearnley

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +5.4 Jacob Fearnley
Recent form +5.1 Jacob Fearnley
Recent record by level +4.6 Jacob Fearnley
Overall strength +3.0 Jacob Fearnley
Overall record & opposition quality +0.9 Jacob Fearnley

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Jacob Fearnley. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Clement Chidekh

  • Current #152 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #208 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #179 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #189 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #240 2025-10-20

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #87 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #121 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #110 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #77 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Clement Chidekh

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1524.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 252.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.8
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 2.4
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 93.0

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 52.5
ELO Rating: 1609.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 72.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.8
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Clement Chidekh
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Brussels 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gauthier Onclin (2-0) hard Brussels 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (2-0) hard Brussels 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Coria (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Clement Chidekh
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jacob Fearnley is favoured in the Brussels Round of 16, with a 67% chance of winning compared with Clement Chidekh’s 33%. The projection is for 24.2 games.

Match Analysis

Fearnley has the stronger hard-court profile and broader recent form, and his rank of 87 is well ahead of Chidekh’s 152. He also won his Brussels opener against Hugo Gaston in straight sets, while his recent record includes a win at the US Open. Chidekh, though, arrives with three consecutive straight-set wins, including against Botic van de Zandschulp. He is also the stronger returner, but has spent 252 minutes on court this tournament compared with Fearnley’s 72, a substantial workload difference.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Clement Chidekh - Jacob Fearnley) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Jacob Fearnley wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Chidekh is projected for 2.5 aces and 3.1 double faults, while Fearnley is projected for 4.8 aces and 4.9 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but the projection gives Fearnley the higher ace total and also the higher double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.3 Most likely: 5 aces Per player: Clement Chidekh 2.5 + Jacob Fearnley 4.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.9 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Clement Chidekh 3.1 + Jacob Fearnley 4.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Clement Chidekh

Expected 2.5 aces

Jacob Fearnley

Expected 4.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Clement Chidekh

Expected 3.1 double faults

Jacob Fearnley

Expected 4.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Clement Chidekh's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Chidekh’s return strength gives him a way to challenge the forecast. If he can make Fearnley’s projected double faults costly, his strong run in Brussels could matter more than the ranking and surface advantage.

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