Gstaad Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Clement Tabur vs Jurij Rodionov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Clement Tabur

Rank: #189
62%
VS

Jurij Rodionov

Rank: #142
38%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Clement Tabur

Why the Model Favors Clement Tabur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.7 Clement Tabur
Serve & return game +4.3 Clement Tabur
Overall record & opposition quality +2.9 Clement Tabur
Surface fit +1.9 Clement Tabur
Recent form +1.7 Jurij Rodionov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Clement Tabur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Clement Tabur

Form Index: 53.0
ELO Rating: 1571.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 162.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 19.8
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 94.4

Jurij Rodionov

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1521.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1515.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 93.6
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Clement Tabur

Jurij Rodionov

  • Last Match: vs Remy Bertola (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Oliver Crawford (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) grass Stuttgart 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Luca Castelnuovo (2-0) grass Stuttgart 54 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Clement Tabur
vs
0
Jurij Rodionov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Gstaad on Swiss clay, Round of 32 action pits Clement Tabur against Jurij Rodionov in this 250-level event. The model backs Tabur to advance with a 61.88% probability versus 38.12% for Rodionov, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 24.19 total games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Tabur comes mainly from his recent results at this level and his combined serve-and-return profile. Tabur’s recent record in Gstaad is strong — straight-set wins over Hendrik Jebens and Marc‑Andrea Huesler — which delivers 4.7 percentage points to his chances. His higher form index (53.05 vs Rodionov’s 37.07) and a superior Elo (1571.41 to 1521.13) underpin the secondary boost from overall record and opposition quality. Surface fit also slightly favors Tabur (surface strength index 19.83 vs 14.55), contributing a smaller lift. Tabur brings a notable all-court package: a mean serve index of 96.57 and a mean return index of 94.40. Rodionov’s serve index (93.63) is close enough that there’s no significant serving gap, but Tabur’s mean return is markedly higher (difference >5), which is likely to pressure Rodionov’s service games. Fatigue is a factor worth noting — Tabur has already accumulated 162 minutes in this tournament while Rodionov shows zero minutes on record here. Over the last three matches Tabur is 2-1 (two recent clay wins), whereas Rodionov’s form is mixed on grass with a 1-2 split in his last three results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Clement Tabur - Jurij Rodionov) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Clement Tabur wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. Positive values indicate Clement Tabur winning more games, negative values indicate Jurij Rodionov winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.8 for the match while the expected double faults are 4.52. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace totals and can increase unforced serving errors late in rallies, so the predicted aces reflect that surface effect. Because the players’ mean serve indices are similar, there’s no single big-server likely to inflate the predicted aces, though Tabur’s stronger return could suppress service holds.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.8 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Clement Tabur versus Jurij Rodionov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

29.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Clement Tabur's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Clement Tabur's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Tabur’s advantage is driven primarily by his recent record at this level and a superior serve-and-return profile. Watch the return game early: if Tabur converts his edge there, it will be the clearest indicator he’s on course to close this match.

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