Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniel Evans vs Corentin Moutet Prediction

Daniel Evans

Rank: #144
43%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #59
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Evans

  • Current #144 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #197 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #167 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #161 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #59 2024-07-22

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #59 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #82 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #70 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #68 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Daniel Evans

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 656.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1623.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1144.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 309.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Daniel Evans
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Washington 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-1) hard Washington 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) grass Eastbourne 83 min

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (1-0) hard Washington 57 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Washington 167 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Karue Sell (2-0) hard Washington 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Evans
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 match in Washington, D.C., is set to be an intriguing battle on hard courts between Daniel Evans and Corentin Moutet. With the tournament being an ATP 500 event, both players will be vying for advancement. The predicted winner is Corentin Moutet, with a probability of 56.92% to Daniel Evans's 43.08%, and a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Daniel Evans, currently ranked 144, has a form index of 59.77 and an Elo rating of 656.83. He has shown solid performance in his last few matches, winning two consecutive matches in Washington after a tough loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. However, his cumulative fatigue of 253 minutes on court might weigh on him. His surface strength index stands at 6.63, while his mean serve index is 96.70 and his mean return index is 86.67. Notably, he possesses a stronger serve index compared to Moutet by over 1.8 points. Corentin Moutet, ranked 59, has a lower form index of 52.18 but a significantly higher Elo rating of 1144.42, indicating his higher overall skill level. His recent performances have been mixed, with a victory in his last match and a previous loss to Yibing Wu. Moutet's fatigue is higher at 309 minutes, but he has a stronger surface strength index of 8.22. His mean serve index is 94.88, while his mean return index is 88.40, giving him a slight advantage in return game effectiveness.

Final Prediction

Corentin Moutet's higher Elo rating and stronger return game give him a notable edge heading into the match against Daniel Evans. The key factor to watch will be Moutet's ability to capitalize on Evans's fatigue and maintain pressure on his serve throughout the match.

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