Corentin Moutet vs Marcos Giron: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Moutet comes mainly from his recent results at similar levels and his overall strength: recent record by level contributes +4.8 percentage points and overall strength adds +3.4 points to his probability. Moutet sits at world No. 39 with an Elo of 1538.8, a form index of 21.96 and zero fatigue from the event; his surface strength index is 16.46. Giron is No. 92 with an Elo of 1503.0, a slightly higher form index (27.41) and also no fatigue; his surface strength index is 11.03. The model also credits Moutet for serve & return (+2.6 points) while assigning a small surface-fit edge (+2.4 points) to Giron — notably, despite Moutet’s higher surface index, the explainability output still leans slightly toward Giron on surface fit. Return numbers favor Moutet: his mean return index is 95.0 versus Giron’s 87.2, a meaningful gap above 5 points that could matter on the quick grass courts. Serve ratings are nearly identical (Moutet 96.11, Giron 96.05), so neither has a distinct serving advantage on paper. Over their last three grass matches each, both players show a 1–2 record: Moutet beat Perricard but lost to Davidovich Fokina and Shelbayh; Giron beat Broom but fell to Choinski and Draper. Match durations suggest both have been tested in long and short encounters heading into this meeting.