Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Dalibor Svrcina vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #123
52%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #83
48%
Expected Total Games: 22.2
Predicted Winner: Dalibor Svrcina

Ranking Trends

Dalibor Svrcina

  • Current Rank: #123 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #96 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #97 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #127 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #164 (2025-03-03)

James Duckworth

  • Current Rank: #83 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #86 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #106 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #92 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #97 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 676.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 216.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.6
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 53.7
Return Rating: 76.8

James Duckworth

Form Index: 18.7
ELO Rating: 703.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 5.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Dalibor Svrcina
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Indian Wells 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mitchell Krueger (2-0) hard Indian Wells 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Acapulco 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Acapulco 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Delray Beach 97 min

James Duckworth
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Acapulco 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Dallas 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 71 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Dalibor Svrcina
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Indian Wells Masters in California, Round of 128 on hard court, Dalibor Svrcina is narrowly favored to upset James Duckworth. The model gives Svrcina a 52.19% chance to win against Duckworth’s 47.81%, with a predicted total of 22.22 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Svrcina (rank 123) arrives with a stronger recent form index (45.46) than Duckworth (rank 83, form 18.69) and an Elo of 676.08 versus Duckworth’s 703.39. Svrcina has accumulated 216 minutes on court at this event, reflecting two straight wins at Indian Wells, while Duckworth shows zero minutes of tournament fatigue entering the match. Surface strength indices are both low (Svrcina 3.59, Duckworth 5.99), indicating neither player has a pronounced historical edge on this surface per the provided metric. There is a large gap in serving ability on the underlying indices: Duckworth’s mean serve index (98.24) towers over Svrcina’s (53.68) by roughly 44.6 points, and Duckworth also posts a higher mean return index (89.84) than Svrcina (76.85), a difference of about 13 points. Over the last three matches Svrcina is coming off two straight 2-0 wins at Indian Wells (beating Vit Kopriva and Mitchell Krueger after a prior loss in Acapulco), showing momentum. Duckworth’s last three results—all losses, including the recent 2-0 defeat to Svrcina in Acapulco—signal a dip in results despite his higher ranking and ratings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.2 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at a predicted aces total of around 12.97; expected double faults are about 5.16. Hard courts typically yield a moderate number of aces and the predicted aces reflect that balanced surface profile. Given Duckworth’s markedly superior serve rating, he is likely to account for a disproportionate share of the aces, which will affect the match’s flow and serve-dominant stretches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Svrcina’s edge in this projection comes from stronger recent form at Indian Wells and match momentum, offsetting Duckworth’s higher rankings and superior serve/return indices. The key factor to watch will be how Duckworth’s big-serve production translates into aces and hold opportunities against Svrcina’s current confidence level.

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