Damir Dzumhur vs Henrique Rocha: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Dzumhur comes mainly from his stronger recent record by level (+7.2 percentage points) and a small advantage in recent form and surface fit (+3.8 and +3.6 pp respectively). Dzumhur brings a higher Elo (1514.5) and a slightly better form index (29.52) than Rocha (Elo 1466.1, form 29.04), and he arrives with zero on-court fatigue for the tournament. Dzumhur’s surface strength index is 12.91 versus Rocha’s 15.01 — a narrow difference that slightly favors Rocha on clay but is outweighed by Dzumhur’s recent results at higher-level events. Serve/return profiles matter on slow clay: Dzumhur’s mean serve index (95.46) is almost identical to Rocha’s (94.86), so there’s no clear serving dominance. However, Dzumhur holds a meaningful edge in return ability (mean return 94.75 vs Rocha’s 87.28), a gap greater than five points that helps explain the predicted break opportunities and lower expected set lengths. Both players have mixed recent results: Dzumhur is 1-2 across his last three matches (a win in Mallorca and two losses on grass including Wimbledon), while Rocha is also 1-2, with a clay win at Roland Garros before two successive defeats. These recent outcomes feed into the model’s assessment of match temperament and level performance.