Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Dane Sweeny vs Gael Monfils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Dane Sweeny

Rank: #183
37%
VS

Gael Monfils

Rank: #69
63%
Expected Total Games: 36.3
Predicted Winner: Gael Monfils

Ranking Trends

Dane Sweeny

  • Current Rank: #183 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #252 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #469 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #322 (2025-01-13)

Gael Monfils

  • Current Rank: #69 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #66 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #48 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #42 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #41 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Dane Sweeny

Form Index: 80.5
ELO Rating: 436.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 1.8
Serve Rating: 24.0
Return Rating: 50.1

Gael Monfils

Form Index: 6.7
ELO Rating: 789.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 93.7

Recent Matches

Dane Sweeny
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefano Travaglia (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jerome Kym (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-1) hard Brisbane 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Brisbane 102 min

Gael Monfils
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Chengdu 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (1-2) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Washington 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dane Sweeny
vs
0
Gael Monfils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Dane Sweeny and Gael Monfils at the 2026 Australian Open marks a crucial encounter in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With Monfils currently favored to win, he has a 63.48% probability of victory compared to Sweeny’s 36.52%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.34.

Match Analysis

Dane Sweeny, currently ranked 183, has a form index of 80.50 and an Elo rating of 436.51. He has been performing well in recent matches, winning his last two contests convincingly. However, his cumulative fatigue stands at 348 minutes, which could impact his performance. In contrast, Gael Monfils, ranked 69th, has a much lower form index of 6.67 but boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 789.04. Monfils also has no cumulative fatigue, indicating he is well-rested. The difference in their surface strength indices is notable, with Sweeny at 2.02 and Monfils at 8.56, reflecting Monfils' superior capability on hard courts. Furthermore, Monfils' mean serve index (97.57) is vastly superior to Sweeny's (23.97), a difference that could heavily influence the dynamics of their serves and returns. In their recent performances, Sweeny has demonstrated resilience with two straight-set victories at the Australian Open, while Monfils has struggled in his last three matches, all resulting in losses. While Sweeny's recent form appears strong, Monfils' historical experience and skill on hard courts give him a significant edge in this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.3 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 18.34 aces and 5.45 double faults. Given that hard courts favor both strong servers and returners, the anticipated ace count reflects the medium-paced surface characteristics. Monfils, with his superior mean serve index, is likely to lead the ace count, while Sweeny's lower index may contribute to a higher rate of double faults, influencing the overall dynamics of the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.3 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gael Monfils holds the advantage heading into this match due to his experience and superior serve capabilities on hard courts. The key factor to watch will be his ability to capitalize on his serve against Sweeny, particularly given the latter's cumulative fatigue and less robust serve index.

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